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Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry
Why is advanced packaging a critical enabler of future semiconductor devices? Will Fan-Out take over the market? What is the outlook per advanced packaging platform? Why is there a trend for System-in-Packages? Which technologies are in development? How is the supply chain changing and what business model shifts are under way?
Future semiconductor drivers are expected to be fragmented and more diverse than in the mobile era. An outlook into the future brings the Internet of Things (from end device to backbone infrastructure), including the Industrial Internet of Things, electrification of transport, autonomous driving, 5G connectivity, augmented & virtual reality and artificial intelligence. In such an environment, advanced packaging is transforming from follower of scaling technology nodes to enabler of future semiconductor applications and products. Heterogeneous integration of multiple dies (SiP) from the latest to legacy front-end nodes, involving a mixture of latest technology high density interconnects to lower cost mature interconnects, at high levels of customization is the future of packaging.
Advanced packaging is experiencing a total revenue CAGR 2016-2022 of 7%, higher than the total packaging industry (3-4%) and semiconductor industry (4-5%). The fastest growing advanced packaging platform is Fan-Out with 36% followed by Embedded Die in laminate substrate with 24% and 2.5D/3D TSV with 23%. Fan-Out is expected to exceed 3$B by 2022 while 2.5D/3D TSV high end is expected to exceed 1.7 $B by 2022. Advanced Packages will continue to dominantly address high end logic and memory in computing and telecom, with further penetration in analog and RF in high end consumer/mobile segments, while also pursuing opportunities in growing automotive and industrial segments.
There are several dynamics shaping the advanced packaging market and its evolution. Going forward, two types of roadmaps need to be considered – scaling and functional roadmap. When it comes to scaling, advanced packaging is given the task to enable further packaging of ICS in sub 10nm technology nodes. On the other hand, within the functional roadmap, cost is more of a concern and advanced packages are facing increasing competition from mature wirebonded packaging as well as modified leadframe packages such as fcQFN.
Furthermore, some of the key packaging market dynamics are brought into perspective, such as:
– Impact of longer front end scaling cycles
– Competing platforms and technologies in the scaling roadmap below L/S 10/10 um
o Package substrate vs. WLP
o WLP vs. 2.5D/3D
– Transition from Wirebonded to FC packages
– Introduction of panel level packaging
– Impact of QFN on advanced packaging growth
The shifts in the semiconductor supply chain are results of preparations for future uncertainty, and search for other value flows. Top OSATs are progressing further down the WLP road, but some are also strengthening module production in order to cover a wide range of assembly technologies. Furthermore, foundries became OSATs, EMS companies are joining packaging and new OEMs are entering the landscape.
Based on the most recent reports from Yole Développement and latest teardowns from System Plus Consulting, the following webcast give an overview of the field of advanced packaging and provide the latest market and technology developments including the industry drivers, market dynamics, packaging technology evolution, forecasts per packaging platform, analysis of the supply chain (player strategy, production shares) and detailed financial analysis of TOP 25 OSATs.
Andrej Ivankovic is a Technology & Market Analyst, in the Advanced Packaging and Semiconductor Manufacturing team, at Yole Développement the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company. He holds a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering, with specialization in Industrial Electronics from the University of Zagreb, Croatia and a PhD in Mechanical Engineering from KU Leuven, Belgium. He started as an intern at ON Semiconductor performing reliability tests, failure analysis and characterization of power electronics and packages. The following 4 years he worked as a R&D engineer at IMEC Belgium on the development of 3D IC technology, focusing on electrical and thermo-mechanical issues of 3D stacking and packaging. Part of this time he also worked at GLOBALFOUNDRIES as an external researcher. He has regularly presented at international conferences authoring and co-authoring 18 papers and 1 patent.
Romain Fraux is Chief Technology Officer (CTO) at the company System Plus Consulting, specialized in the reverse costing analysis of electronics, from semiconductor devices to electronic systems. Supporting industrial companies in their development, Romain and his team are offering a complete range of services, costing tools and reports. They deliver in-depth production cost studies and estimate objective selling price of a product, all based on a detailed physical analysis of each component in System Plus Consulting laboratory. Thanks to his deep technical expertise and his knowledge of the industrial landscape, Romain performs costing analyses of MEMS devices, Integrated Circuit and Advanced Packaging. He has significant experience in the modeling of the manufacturing costs of electronics components as well.
Romain has spoken in more than 20 industry conferences worldwide over the last 10 years. Romain holds a BEng from Heriot-Watt University of Edinburgh (Scotland) in addition to a master’s degree in Microelectronics from the University of Nantes (France).
As part of the Commercial & Communication team of Yole Développement (Yole), Fayçal El Khamassi serves as a Global Sales Support & Coordinator. He is in charge of the development of technology & market reports activity and is closely working with the international sales team to support Yole’s customers. For few years, Fayçal is composing business development actions, especially to the attention of major accounts. He has more than 15 years of experience in the “More than Moore” semiconductor marketplace.
Fayçal holds a Beng Honours (Bachelor – Mechanical Engineering) from the University of the West of England, Bristol (England) as well as an Mechanical and Production Engineering degree from University Claude Bernard (Lyon, France).
Discover the related reports about the Advanced Packaging Industry here
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