Solid-state battery as an ultimate milestone in the companies’ roadmaps

2025 will be a decisive year for commercialization.

“Over the last few years we have seen a growing number of research activities in solid-state batteries.” asserts Milan Rosina, PhD, Principal Analyst, Power Electronics & Batteries at Yole Intelligence, part of Yole Group. “However, the development of solid-state battery is still nascent. Many solid-state battery developers are planning to commercialize their batteries by 2025, which will undoubtedly be an important milestone for solid-state battery commercialization”.

Based on the roadmaps of EV makers, technology achievements and supply chain collaborations as of Q1/2021, Yole expects that commercial introduction of solid-state batteries will start in 2025, with mass production of solid-state-battery-equipped vehicles starting around 2030. Solid-state battery demand will represent less than 2.5 GWh in 2027, a tiny volume compared to total Li-ion battery demand in 2027. Thus, no high-volume “switch” from conventional Li-ion to solid-state battery is expected. More than 99% of solid-state battery demand will be for EVs.

In this context, Yole investigates disruptive technologies and related markets in depth, to point out the latest innovations and underline the business opportunities.

Released today, the Solid-State Battery 2021 report offers in-depth insight into the key drivers and value propositions of solid-state battery technologies, and comparisons with conventional Li-ion batteries. It also provides an analysis of the remaining challenges in bringing solid-state batteries to commercialization with a dedicated focus on different applications. Including market trends and forecasts, supply chain, technology trends, technical insights and analysis, take away and outlook, this study also delivers an in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and main players’ strategies.

What are the economic and technological challenges of the solid-state battery industry? What are the key drivers? Who are the suppliers to watch, and what innovative technologies are they working on? What are the different approaches for the solid-state battery commercialization?

Yole presents today its vision of the solid-state battery industry.

As analyzed by Yole’s team in the new Solid-State Battery 2021 report, solid-state battery is considered an ultimate milestone in the technology roadmaps of battery and EV makers. A few years ago, such batteries were considered by many companies as a “holy grail” to target, one that could revolutionize the battery and electric vehicle industry. Many EV makers have since bet on solid-state battery start-ups either because of their optimism in view of rapid achievement of commercial products or to ensure they do not miss the train in the growing battery competition. The magic word “solid-state battery” has also provided entry to additional R&D funding from venture capital funds and public funds, thus reducing the amount of investment required from EV makers themselves.
According to Shalu Agarwal, PhD, Technology & Market Analyst, Power Electronics & Materials at Yole: “The vision held for solid-state battery has evolved and is more pragmatic today. Solid-state battery is currently considered as just an additional step in the progressive step-by-step improvement of conventional Li-ion batteries”.
Indeed, most battery and EV makers are refocusing their efforts on shorter-term technology milestones such as nickel-rich cathode (NCM811), silicon-graphite anode, and cobalt-free cathode.
“Bringing solid-state technology to mass production is a difficult task and needs more time than was previously expected.” says Milan Rosina. “It is clear now that partnerships are more important than ever to bring all the necessary solid-state battery know-how together: technology, equipment, high-volume / high-yield production, and end-systems”.
Partners with know-how in ceramic material and ceramic-based devices, and with experience in lithium-metal anode and electrode / electrolyte interfaces, may be immensely helpful in shortening the time needed to bring the solid-state battery to market.