Photonics GaAs and InP Compound Semiconductor Market Monitor

Ams OSRAM, AXT, Broadcom, Coherent, Freiberger Compound Materials, IQE, Landmark, Lumentum, Sumitomo Electric, VPEC and more.

Key Features

• Market forecast through 2029 in M$US for devices, wafers and epiwafers and units for wafers and epiwafers for Photonics GaAs, and Photonics InP.
• Market forecast through 2029 by market segment including Telecom, Consumer, Automotive, Industrial and Medical in M$US revenue
• Market forecast breakdown by technology including discrete and wafer size
• Market players at device, epiwafer and wafer level for Photonics GaAs and Photonics InP from 2019 to present by M$US revenue

What’s new? 

• The 2029 forecast is included in this quarter: the database with a detailed split of end systems and technology is fully updated accordingly.
• Q4-23 revenues of the main players in the InP and GaAs markets
• Analysis on the breaking news in the GaAs and InP  eco-system
• Focus on the teardown of the Apple Vision Pro headset showing the GaAs VCSELs
• Focus on the incentives to transition to 6” InP substrates
• Up-to-date analysis of Photonics GaAs and InP eco-systems

Product's objectives

• Quarterly data update
• Market forecast through 2029 in M$US for devices, wafers and epiwafers and units for wafers and epiwafers for Photonics GaAs and Photonics InP applications
• Market forecast through 2029 by market segment including Telecom and infrastructures, Mobile and Consumer, Automotive and Mobility, Industrial and Medical in M$US revenue
• Market forecast breakdown by technology including discrete and wafer size
• Market players at device, epiwafer and wafer level for photonic GaAs, including Lumentum, Coherent, ams OSRAM, IQE, VPEC, Sumitomo Electric and Freiberger from 2019 to present by M$US revenue
• Market players at device, epiwafer and wafer level for photonic InP including Coherent, Lumentum, Broadcom, Landmark, IQE, Sumitomo Electric and AXT from 2019 to present by M$US revenue

The Photonics GaAs and InP market are rebounding with market recovery and new consumer products

After experiencing three consecutive quarters of weakness and slowdown in the InP datacom and telecom markets, the fourth quarter of 2023 marked the beginning of a sequential increase in InP bare-die, epiwafer, and substrate revenues. This uptick was primarily fueled by robust demand for 800G optical transceivers featuring InP EMLs and SiPh, along with signs of improvement in the Chinese telecom market. At the InP device level, the commercialization of 200G EMLs is anticipated in the latter half of 2024, specifically for integration into 1.6Tb pluggables.

Turning to the GaAs photonics market, Apple introduced its Vision Pro AR headset in February 2024, incorporating GaAs VCSEL technologies as identified through device teardowns conducted by the Yole Group. Additionally, new wearables expected to launch in 2024 will feature GaAs VCSELs within their 3D sensing modules. On the datacom front, certain players have already commenced mass production of 100G VCSELs, while others such as Lumentum are slated to begin mass production in the latter half of 2024. Development efforts for 200G VCSELs aimed at 1.6Tb pluggable applications are currently underway as of Q1-24

From a stable GaAs to a dynamic InP market: Will fierce competition lead one to dominate? 

Driven primarily by datacom applications, GaAs photonics saw a seismic shift when Apple adopted VCSELs for 3D sensing in the iPhone X (2017) and Vision Pro AR headset in 2024. This propelled 3D sensing as the prime application for GaAs, set to hit a $1.9B market by 2029 per Yole estimates. Leveraging 6-inch GaAs wafers, manufacturers aim for cost-efficient high-volume output, reshaping the supply chain. Lumentum partnered with epitaxy houses, while Coherent pursued vertical integration via mergers. Sony's recent entry into the 3D sensing ecosystem adds intrigue to the competition, with IQE dominating the epiwafer market. What will the competition between the main players look like?

InP's primary market drivers, datacom and telecom, hinge on its unique capability for high bandwidth, data rates, and long-range optical transceivers. Yole projects a $5.2B InP market by 2029. AI emerges as a key driver since 2023, expected to fuel InP's growth with high data rate EELs such as 100G and 200G EMLs and SiPh. However, consumer interest waned post-Apple's 2022 adoption due to cost and supply chain hurdles. Despite this, InP's value in SWIR wavelengths offers a gateway to consumer tech like AR/VR or wearables, potentially steering InP's future growth. The future of InP hinges on navigating these dynamics and seizing new opportunities in evolving markets. What is the future of the InP market? And how it will evolve?

The answers to these questions are in the Q1-24 edition of the Photonics InP and GaAs CS market monitor.

Context​

• Photonics application market segments​
• Monitor identity card​

Global Market Analysis​

GaAs photonics: changes since the previous quarter​

GaAs photonics market overview​

• Annual GaAs bare-die, epiwafer, and wafer market forecast
• GaAs Photonic die market dynamics
• Open GaAs Photonic epiwafer market dynamics
• GaAs Photonic wafer market dynamics
• GaAs Photonic die revenue
• GaAs Photonic epiwafer shipments
• Open GaAs Photonic epiwafer revenue
• GaAs Photonic epiwafer pricing
• GaAs Photonic wafer shipments
• GaAs Photonic wafer revenue
• GaAs Photonic wafer pricing

GaAs photonics market forecasts​

• GaAs Photonic die market by segment​
• Open GaAs Photonic epiwafer market by segment​
• GaAs Photonic wafer market by segment​

GaAs photonics technology​

• GaAs Photonic die market by device type ​
• Open GaAs Photonic epiwafer market by device type​
• GaAs Photonic wafer market by device type​

GaAs photonics supply chain and market players​

• Supply chain and business models​
• Fab capacity estimation​
• Chinese Photonics Industry​
• Lumentum - GaAs Photonic die revenue​
• Coherent - GaAs Photonic die revenue​
• Ams OSRAM - GaAs Photonic die revenue​
• IQE - GaAs Photonic epiwafer revenue​
• VPEC - GaAs Photonic epiwafer revenue​
• Sumitomo Electric - GaAs Photonic wafer revenue​
• Freiberger Compound Materials - GaAs Photonic wafer revenue​
• Trumpf - GaAs Photonic device ​
• Win Semiconductor - GaAs Photonic foundry​​

InP photonics module: changes since the previous quarter​

InP photonics market overview​

• Annual InP bare-die, epiwafer and wafer market forecast​
• InP Photonic die market dynamics ​
• InP Photonic open epiwafer market dynamics ​
• InP Photonic wafer market dynamics ​
• InP Photonic die market revenue​
• InP Photonic open and captive epiwafer market shipments​
• InP Photonic open epiwafer market revenue​
• InP Photonic Telecom and Datacom epiwafer pricing​
• InP Photonic Sensing epiwafer pricing​
• InP Photonic wafer shipments​
• InP Photonic wafer market revenue​
• InP Photonic wafer pricing​

InP photonics market forecasts​

• InP Photonic die market by segment​
• InP Photonic die market by application​
• Open InP Photonic epiwafer market by application​
• InP Photonic wafer market by application​
• InP Photonic wafer volume by application​

InP photonics technology​

• InP Photonic die market by device type ​
• InP Photonic wafer market by device type​
• InP Photonic wafer volume by device type​
• InP Photonic wafer volume by wafer size​

InP photonics supply chain and market players​

• Supply chain and business models​
• Fab capacity estimation​
• Chinese Photonics Industry​
• Coherent - InP Photonic bare die revenue​
• Lumentum - InP Photonic bare die revenue​
• LandMark - InP Photonic epiwafer revenue​
• IQE - InP Photonic epiwafer revenue​
• AXT- InP Photonic wafer revenue​
• Sumitomo Electric - InP Photonic wafer revenue​

Conclusions: What to look for in the coming quarters ​

• Device revenue market shares: GaAs vs. InP ​
• GaAs Photonics – what to look for in the coming quarters?​
• GaAs Photonics - Long term business outlooks​
• InP Photonics – what to look for in the coming quarters?​
• InP Photonics - Long term business outlooks​

Annex: terminology and definitions​

• Acronyms​
• Explanation and methodology​
• Open and Captive market​
• Definition of estimated market, terminology at substrate, epitaxy and device level​
• Formulas used ​
• Laser diodes – Comparison of DFB and FP EELS and VCSELS​
• Technological requirements by application ​