Market Monitor

Wafer Fab Equipment Market Monitor

By Yole Intelligence — Apr 2023

Wafer fab equipment revenue market should reach $107B in 2028, with a 4.3% CAGR.

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Key Features

2016-2022 historical & 2023-2028 forecast for overall wafer fab equipment (USDM, system/chamber units, installed base) and service and support
2016-2022 historical & 2023-2025 forecast for device: memory, logic, specialty and advanced packaging.
2016-2022 historical & 2023-2025 forecast for process technologies: thinning and CMP, deposition, etch and clean, patterning, metrology and inspection, ion implantation and wafer bonding.
Wafer fab equipment 2016-2022 historical market share with breakdown to device, process technologies and regions

What’s new?

Semiconductor Wafer Fab Equipment Monitor is a new Yole’s product watching the financial situation of semiconductor machinery on a quarterly bases.

Product objectives

Provide historical data, market metrics and forecasts for semiconductor wafer fab equipment vendor revenue from equipment shipments as well as revenue generated from service and support.
Update data quarterly with detailed semiconductor wafer fab equipment market analysis for device applications, process technology and regions.
Provide historical market shares for semiconductor wafer fab equipment vendors with a breakdown to device application, process technology and region levels.
In Q1 2023, we tracked 146 vendors with a detailed breakdown of their revenues by process technology.
Analyze current semiconductor wafer fab equipment market state in terms of semiconductor chip revenue, capital expenditure (CapEx), macroeconomics and geopolitics.
Considering the above, to forecast near-term revenue evolution.

This product completes the already large Monitor’s portfolio of the Yole Group, highlighting the semiconductor wafer fab equipment market with breakdown to their technologies:

Thinning and CMP Equipment
Deposition equipment, including CVD, PVD and electroplating
Ion Implant equipment
Etch and Clean equipment, including dry and wet technologies
Patterning equipment, i.e. resist processing as well as photomask and wafer exposure
Metrology & Inspection equipment
Wafer bonders
Other wafer processing equipment

What makes it unique?

Paving the way to a deeper understanding of the wafer processing equipment, Yole’s Wafer Fab Equipment Market Monitor brings:

Market sizes by end-market: Mobile & Consumer, Auto & Mobility, Industrial, Medical, Defense & Aerospace, Telecom & Infrastructure
Market breakdown to technologies of each wafer fab equipment segment
An industrial landscape outlook and related key moves
Quarterly forecasts to Q4 2024 and annual forecasts to 2028
Quarterly vendor shares for key companies
Full quarterly updates
Regular access to analysts

Weak Q1 2023 for wafer fab equipment fuels uncertainty across the entire semiconductor supply chain

After three years of consecutive record semiconductor wafer fab equipment revenues, we enter a period of equipment capacity digestion. A slight slump in Q4 2022 wafer fab equipment revenue, down 1% Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ), led to a weak Q1 2023, down 26% QoQ, that marks the first quarter of a 2023 downturn. Q1 2023’s expected revenue level is at US$20B, a value similar to that generated in Q4 2020. This decline is largely due to memory chipmakers pushing back or even cancelling orders, despite long equipment lead times and high fab utilization rates. Equipment vendors are trying to rebook these lost orders in logic or specialty devices and advanced packaging. Yet overall, 2023 revenues may fall by up to 13% Year-over-Year (YoY) to US$87B. On top of that, the geopolitical situation brings additional headwinds to US, European and now Japanese equipment vendors, depriving them of lucrative regional shipments. Process technologies, including etch and clean, deposition, ion implantation, metrology and inspection, show large revenue declines QoQ. The only exceptions are patterning and wafer bonder segments.

On the other hand, service and support revenue is growing steadily at 1% YoY with yearly increments in installed base of 7% YoY.

Detailed analysis of semiconductor wafer fab equipment market and vendor market share

The Semiconductor Wafer Fab Equipment Market Monitor tracks the market for machinery used for wafer-level semiconductor device processing on a quarterly basis. This machinery is the backbone for all semiconductor ecosystems and an enabler for subsequent chip technology advancements and social digitization.

The monitor strives to understand overall wafer fab equipment vendor revenues in relation to semiconductor chipmaker revenue and CapEx. For that, the monitor tracks historical 2016-2022 evolution of wafer fab equipment revenues and provides insight for 2023-2028 revenue forecast. Furthermore, the monitor provides a wafer fab equipment revenue breakdown to equipment billing revenue as well as service and support revenue. Equipment billing revenue is further detailed with respect to device applications, process applications and regions. Finally, the monitor provides a detailed 2016-2022 market share for each of above-mentioned market segments.

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Wafer Fab Equipment Market Monitor

Wafer fab equipment revenue market should reach $107B in 2028, with a 4.3% CAGR.​

Weak Q1 2023 for wafer fab equipment fuels uncertainty across the entire semiconductor supply chain​

Detailed analysis of semiconductor wafer fab equipment market and vendor market share​

Wafer fab equipment revenue market should reach $107B in 2028, with a 4.3% CAGR.

Weak Q1 2023 for wafer fab equipment fuels uncertainty across the entire semiconductor supply chain

Detailed analysis of semiconductor wafer fab equipment market and vendor market share