Market and Technology Trends

China Semiconductor Industry 2025 - Device and Equipment

Oct 2025

China’s chip industry is scaling fast, closing gaps in capacity and market share, reaching 10% of the world — scaling production today, innovating tomorrow.

YINTR25530

Key Features

Self-sufficiency analysis
Semiconductor device players in China
Open foundry players in China
Assembly and test players in China
Semiconductor equipment players in China
Main end-market analysis
Technology lag analysis

Product's objectives

Bring context in the rise of the semiconductor industry in China
- Sales vs Manufacturing capacity gap
- Electronics trade surplus
- US technology ban

Cover the semiconductor industry in China per market
- Semiconductor industry self-sufficiency goals
- Device / Foundry / OSAT / Equipment

Cover the semiconductor industry in China per technology
- Logic node race / memory node race
- Technology drivers

China’s Semiconductor Balancing Act: Building self-sufficiency While Battling U.S. Pressure

Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has transformed into the world’s electronics hub, generating trade surpluses by the early 2010s. Yet its semiconductor consumption has long outpaced domestic production, accounting for ~30% of global semiconductor sales by 2019. The US China trade war played on this imbalance, with Washington restricting Chinese access to advanced chips and targeting firms like Huawei. In response, China has rapidly expanded assembly, test, and foundry capacity, driving local equipment demand beyond 30% of global equipment sales by 2023. At current pace, China may achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing by 2027-2028, though trailing at leading-edge nodes. Meanwhile, US reliance on imports surged from 5% to 23% of global trade between 2018 and 2024, underscoring why semiconductors were exempted from reciprocal tariffs. Today, China faces the dual challenge of building a full-stack semiconductor ecosystem while competing head-to-head with the US in the AI Datacenter market which is now the dominant vertical for semiconductors — China now face strategic tension between breadth and focus that will define its industrial future.

China’s Self-Sufficiency: Capacity Surges Ahead, Competitiveness Still Catching Up

China’s push for semiconductor self-sufficiency is advancing quickly, though unevenly across measures. By 2024, manufacturing capacity already exceeds internal demand at 112% and could hit 150% by 2030. Relative to regional sales, the share rises from 71% to over 110% in the same period. Yet when measured by revenues of Chinese players, progress lags: only 35% against internal demand and 22% versus regional sales in 2024, improving to ~70% and 50% by 2030. This gap underscores the difference between installed capacity and global competitiveness. Domestically, growth is broad-based: device player revenues are projected to grow 15.7% CAGR to ~$100B by 2030;. While China’s semiconductor player at large remain with modest global market share, their trajectory points to significant gains, particularly in foundry and equipment. With state backing and market momentum, China is set to strengthen its semiconductor ecosystem, even as competitiveness of domestic champions on the global stage remains the key challenge.

China’s Semiconductor Crossroads: Scaling Fast, Catching the Leading Edge later

China’s semiconductor industry stands at an inflection point. Massive state-backed investments have driven foundry capacity beyond domestic demand, reinforcing China’s role as both the world’s largest market and a rising producer. Despite heavy US spending on AI datacenters, China still accounts for ~28% of global semiconductor sales due to its vast electronics manufacturing base. Yet Chinese device makers remain modest players with just 6.3% global share in 2024, projected to reach ~10% by 2030 — comparable to Europe or Japan in the recent years. Foundry self-sufficiency is expected by then, though device revenues will cover only half of internal demand. Technologically, Chinese manufacturers remain two to three years behind Taiwan and South Korea, with lower transistor densities, currently offset by design choices like larger chips and chip clustering. Long-term competitiveness hinges on breakthroughs in critical areas such as EUV lithography. For now, China’s model emphasizes duplication, optimization, and scaling—an approach that will not yet evolve into distinct innovation, this next chapter will probably open beyond 2030.

3-page summary

Executive summary

Context

Forecasts

Per business model
- 2020 - 2030 China’s semiconductor device industry ($B)
- 2020 - 2030 China’s open foundry industry ($B)
- 2020 - 2030 China’s assembly and test industry ($B)
- 2020 - 2030 China’s semiconductor equipment industry ($B)

Combined
- 2020 - 2030 China’s semiconductor industry ($B)
- 2020 - 2030 China’s semiconductor industry (global %MS)

Ecosystem

Semiconductor device players
Semiconductor foundry assembly & test
Semiconductor equipment and materials

Market trends

Per selected business horizontals
- Mainland China’s memory market
- Mainland China’s processor market
- Mainland China’s power semiconductor market
- Mainland China’s mems market
Per selected business verticals
- Mainland China’s smartphone market
- Mainland China’s datacenter market
- Mainland China’s automotive market