Market and Technology Trends
Computing and AI for Automotive 2023
By Yole Intelligence —
Domain centralization boosts and reshapes the demand for automotive processors, creating opportunities for a variety of competitors and with a growing market reaching $12.7B in 2028.
Strong dynamics for ADAS and cockpit processors
Pushed by safety regulations, the adoption of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is increasing rapidly – and this is driving multiple sensor adoption. This report covers processors for ADAS cameras, radars, lidars, and in-cabin sensing, as well as processors for ADAS domain controllers. Processors dedicated to the cockpit, including the in-vehicle infotainment main unit, instrument cluster, and telematics, are also investigated.
Car architecture evolution is strongly impacting the processor market, in terms of both units and revenue. Even if automotive industry cycles are rather slow compared to other markets such as consumer, centralization is expected to significantly progress in the next years and have a strong impact on processor units and revenue, as well as on changing technology requirements and processor class breakdown. The software-defined vehicle is another key trend impacting automotive processors, as it is impacting hardware and software roadmaps with new requirements which are challenging the traditional automotive companies.
Computing revenue is growing strongly, reaching $12.7B in 2028
Computing revenue for ADAS and cockpit processor is increasing quickly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 - 2028 (CAGR22-28) of 13% and reaching a $12.7B value in 2028. Among these two categories, ADAS is the more dynamic segment, growing from $3.2B in 2022 up to $8.7B in 2028, with a CAGR22-28 of 18%. This growth is driven by the increasing number of shipments and also the centralization trend, which needs more powerful and expensive processors. The burgeoning average selling price (ASP) is partly the consequence of the recent semiconductor shortage crises. It’s also partly due to the integration of more functionalities into processors. Together, these factors are enlarging computing revenue from the automotive sector. The cockpit segment is also growing from $2.9B in 2022 up to $4.0B in 2028, driven by centralization into a cockpit domain controller, the growing importance of user experience applications, and the arrival of 5G, which is having an impact on the telematic segment.
Many diverse competitors are fighting for this rapidly growing market
Software-defined cars, new cockpit applications, and an increasing number of ADAS / AD functions make processors increasingly important in cars and can create a dependent relationship between OEMs and processors. In this context, some OEMs have announced their willingness to build a custom processor – however, due to the cost, most of them are instead expected to use other solutions such as co-design or forming partnerships.
Focusing closely on the processor ecosystem, there is high competition between different types of competitors, such as traditional automotive players, processors companies coming from consumer and server markets, companies specializing in vision processing, and many start-ups proposing innovative solutions. Within this landscape, China's computing ecosystem is very dynamic, with many young companies enjoying strong momentum and getting design wins. Among them, Horizon Robotics and SemiDrive are already shipping processors in cars, and others are expected to follow in the coming years. As China is now the more dynamic automotive market, it could have a strong impact on the computing landscape.
Aisin, Alphabet, Algolux, Alibaba Group, Allwinner Technology, Amazon, Ambarella, AMD, Apollo, Apple, Aptiv, Arbe, Argo, ARM, Arriver, Artosyn, Audi, Aurora, AutoChips, Autox, Baidu, BlackSesame Technologies, Blaize, Bosch, BMW Group, Cariad, Cambricon, Chery, Cipia, Continental, Cruise, Daimler, Delphi, Dena, Denso, Didi, DJI, EasyMile, Eeasy.Tech, Faurecia, FCA, Five, Ford, Foxconn, Fujitsu, Geely, General Motors, Google, Hailo, Harman, Hella, HiSilicon, Honda, Horizon Robotics, Huawei, Hyundai, Infineon, Intel, Kalray, Leapmotor, LeddarTech, Lyft, Magna, Marvell, Mediatek, Melexis, Mercedes-Benz, Microship, Microsoft, Mobileye, Movento, Motional, Navya, Nio, Nissan, Nuance, Nvidia, NXP, OmniVision, Oppo, Pony.AI, PSA, Quadric, Qualcomm, Renault Nissan, Renesas, Rockchip, SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile, Samsung, Seeing Machines, Seres Automotive, SemiDrive, Siengine, Singgo, Smart Eye, Sony, Softkinetic, Stellantis, STMicroelectronics, Telechips, Tesla, Texas Instruments, Toshiba, Toyota, TSMC, Uber, Uhnder, Valeo, Veoneer, Videantis, Volkswagen, Volvo, Vsora, Waymo, WeRide, Woven Planet, Xiaomi, Xilinx, Xperi, Yandex, Zenseact, ZF Friedrichshafen, Zoox and more
- Types of hardware for active safety, ADAS, and cockpit
- Car architecture evolution, with associated forecast
- Processors for active safety, ADAS, and cockpit forecast by volume, ASP, and revenue
- Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies used in automotive
- Ecosystems, supply chain, market share, market forecast, and trends
- Focus on the Chinese automotive processor ecosystem
- Processor for active safety, ADAS, and cockpit technology trends
- Deeper analysis of digital cockpit evolution, including centralization into cockpit domain controller
- Instrument cluster and telematic processor have been added
- A focus on the Chinese ecosystem has been made, with an overview of companies
- An overview of the full automotive processor market, including MCUs
- Give an overview of computing for safety, ADAS & AD, in-cabin sensing, cockpit, and connectivity:
- How car architecture is evolving with the ongoing centralization trend. Car architecture forecasts are provided.
- Where processors can be found in cars
- What are the technologies used, and what are the ongoing evolutions
- Processor: volume forecast, ASP forecast, revenue forecast with technology breakdown, and application breakdown
- Provide a scenario for AI within the dynamics of the autonomous automotive market and present an understanding of AI’s impact on the semiconductor industry:
- Hardware for AI: revenue forecast, volume forecast
- Focus on autonomous cars: ADAS and AD vehicles
- Deliver an in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players:
- Will the OEMs develop their own processor, or will they choose to co-develop it with partners?
- Who are the players? What are the relationships inside this ecosystem? Who will win the “autonomous battle”? How is cockpit technology evolution impacting the market?
- Who are the key suppliers to watch, and what technologies do they provide?
- Offer key technical insights and analyses into future technology trends and challenges:
- Key technology choices
- Technology dynamics
- Emerging technologies and roadmaps
Scope of the report
About the authors
Companies cited in the report
What we got right, what we got wrong
- Semiconductor market – Focus on automotive computing
- Overview of automotive macrotrends
- Automotive market
- ADAS architecture evolution
- Imaging processors
- Radar processors
- LiDAR processors
- Cockpit processors
- Active Safety and ADAS
- Digital cockpit
Market shares and supply chain
- Noteworthy automotive news
- Will OEMs make their own chips?
- Processor ecosystem overview and market share
- Focus on the Main Chinese Processor Companies
- Active Safety – ADAS/AD
- Digital cockpit
- Software-defined Vehicles
- Centralized Vehicle Architecture
About Yole Group