Market and Technology Trends

DRAM Modules 2023

By Yole Intelligence — Jan 2023

Despite grim short-term perspectives, the DRAM module market will reach ~$96B in 2028 from ~$42B in 2022, pushed by DDR5 and data center applications.

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DRAM module revenues dropped by ~%8 in 2022. However, long-term perspectives are very bright.

The DRAM market is cyclical in nature. It is characterized by periods of shortages and oversupply that give rise to strong price variations and revenue volatility. After an abrupt decline in 2019, followed by two positive years in 2020 and 2021, the DRAM market rapidly entered a new decline phase in 2022. Multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions and global inflation – which worsened consumer economic sentiment – have weakened DRAM-bit demand, accelerating the shift into oversupply. As an important segment of the DRAM market, DRAM modules are not spared from such macrotrends. For 2022, we estimate a -36% YoY decline in the PC-module market, which is poised to decrease from ~$10.3B in 2021 to ~$6.6B in 2022. For server modules, the market dynamics are better. We estimate a moderate YoY revenue growth of 0.4%, from ~$33B in 2021 to ~$33.1B in 2022. The total DRAM-module market size will increase from ~$42B in 2022 to ~$96.3B in 2028, with a CAGR_22-28of ~16% - mainly due to the impressive growth of server modules (CAR_22-28 ~19%).

DDR5 is profiling as the jackpot for the DIMM chipset market: ~$4B by 2028, with a CAGR_21-28of ~28%.

Each new DDR generation has offered improvements in terms of capacity, data rate, and power consumption. At the same time, new signal integrity challenges have emerged for module designers, making it harder to reach higher module capacities at higher speeds. To solve these issues, specific on-DIMM chips are needed.

The number of DIMM chips per module has increased with the most recent DDR generations. With the DDR5 ramp-up, which is expected to overtake DDR4 by 2024 in terms of market share, the on-module chipset will include RCD, DB, PMICs, SPD Hub, and temperature sensor chips for the most advanced modules. For PC, the DIMM chipset was first included with DDR5 at an average price of $3.5, while for data center modules the DIMM chipset price can be higher than $10. DDR5 penetration will lead to a market of about ~$4B by 2028 ($710M in 2021, $1.1B in 2022) with a CAGR_21-28 of ~28%.

Market share of third-party module vendors is expected to decrease in the coming years, from 17% in 2021 to 9% by 2028.

Module suppliers can be classified into IDMs and third-party vendors. The former (e.g., Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, Nanya, etc.) sell self-branded modules (or own module-specific brands), leveraging their chip manufacturing capabilities. Additionally, they sell known good (KG) DRAM wafers to third-party vendors that package DRAM chips through OSATs and sell modules to final customers that include OEMs, hyperscalers, and channel distribution. The smallest third-party suppliers tend to buy DRAM chips from IDMs.

Third-party module vendors are strongly focused on DRAM modules for PCs (notebook, desktop, and workstation). We estimate that, in 2021, more than 70% of their revenues came from such segments. However, this market is expected to decrease due to weak demand and the penetration of LPDDR DRAM in notebooks. On the other hand, and with interesting growth perspectives, the data center market is largely dominated by IDMs. Hence, the market share of third-party suppliers is poised to decrease from 17% in 2021 to 9% in 2028, unless market conditions change and these players start targeting servers and other markets beyond PCs.

Key Features

The most important aspects covered in this report are:

Description of DRAM-module technologies and market forecasts in terms of form factors (e.g., UDIMM, SODIMM, LRDIMM, RDIMM, etc.) and DDR interface generations.
Description and market forecasts for memory-interface ICs, including register clock drivers (RCD) and data buffers (DB), as well as other key DIMM components – among which are power management integrated circuits (PMICs), temperatures sensors (TSs), and serial presence-detect (SPD) hubs.
Insights on key technology trends, including processing-in-memory (PIM), persistent memory (PM), and the Compute Express Link (CXL) interface.

Product objectives

Yole Intelligence is glad to provide you with our brand-new memory report, DRAM Modules 2023, offering a detailed technology and market analysis of dual in-line memory modules (DIMM) for servers and personal computers. The main objectives of this report are as follows:

Deliver an in-depth analysis of DRAM-module technologies and their markets as a function of the interfaces and the module types.
Present the DIMM chipset market and its key technology trends.
Offer a 2021 - 2028 market forecast for DRAM modules and the DIMM chipset.
Describe the DRAM-module ecosystem and the players’ dynamics.
Present key technology trends offering growth opportunities for the DRAM-module industry.

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DRAM Modules 2023

Despite grim short-term perspectives, the DRAM module market will reach ~$96B in 2028 from ~$42B in 2022, pushed by DDR5 and data center applications.