Fan-Out Packaging 2023

3D-Plus, 3M, AdTech Engineering, AGC, AMD, Amicra, Amkor, Ajinomoto, AKG, Analog Devices, Apple, Applied Materials, ASE Group, ASM Pacific, A*Star (IME), AT&S, Atotech, Autoliv, BASF, Besi, BK Medical, Blackberry, Brewer Science, Broadcom, Bosch, Camtek, Canon, CEA Leti, CAS Microelectronics Integration Technology (Casmeit), Cerebras, China Mobile, China Resources Microelectronics, Cirrus Logic, Continental, Corning, Cypress, Deca Technologies, Denso, Dialog Semiconductor, Disco, Dow Dupont, ECHINT, ERS electronic, Evatec, EVG, Fitbit, Fozhixin Microelectronics, Fraunhofer, Fujifilm, Georgia Tech, GlobalFoundries, Global Unichip Corp. (GUC), Google, Hanmi, HD Microsystems, Henkel, HiSilicon, Hitachi chemicals, Huawei, i3 electronics, Infineon, Innolux Corporation, Integra Technologies, Intel, Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics (JCET), JCET Semiconductor Integration (JSI – a JV of JCET ), KLA, Lam Research, LB Semicon, Lenovo, LG Electronics, MacDermid Alpha, Marvell, Maxim IC, MediaTek, Merck, Micro Systems Technologies (MST), MKS, Nagase ChemteX, Nanium (Amkor), Nanometrics, Nepes, Nephos, Nippon Kayaku, Nitto Denko, Nvidia, NXP, OIP Technology, Oppo, Onda, onsemi, Onto Innovation, ORC Manufacturing, Panasonic, PEP Innovation, Powertech Technology Inc, Qualcomm, Qorvo, Rohm, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Screen, SEMSYSCO, Shibaura, Shin-Etsu, Shinko Electric Industries, Schott, Silicon Box, SiPLP (part of CR Micro), Sivers IMA, SK hynix, SkyWater, Skyworks, Sky Semiconductor, Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL - part of ASE Group), SMEE, Sony, Spreadtrum, STATS ChipPAC (JCET), Steelmate, STMicroelectronics, SUSS MicroTec, Synaptics, Synergy,, Tazmo, Tesla, Texas Instruments, TianShui Huatian Technology, Tokyo Electron, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, Tongfu Microelectronics, Toray, Towa, TSMC, Unimicron, Veeco, Xilinx, Xiaomi, Yamada, Yubi Semiconductor, and more.

Fan-Out packaging market is projected to grow at 12.5% CAGR in the next five years

Fan-out (FO) packaging revenue was $1.86B in 2022. We expect it to have a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.5% through to 2028, reaching $3.8B. Ultra-High Density (UHD) FO will experience the fastest growth across all market classes, with a CAGR of 30%, growing from $338M in 2022 to $1,630M in 2028.

HD FO is the dominating market class in 2022 with $1,194M revenues, and it will have a 6.7% CAGR, reaching $1,757M in 2028. Core FO will have a 2.8% CAGR, increasing from $329M in 2022 to $389M in 2028.

FO Wafer Level Packaging (WLP) volume will still dominate the market, with wafer production of 2,376K in 2028, versus 238K 300 mm wafer equivalent production for FO Panel Level Packaging (PLP). Total FO package volume will grow from 2,348 Munits in 2022 to 2,960 Munits in 2028.

TSMC is the biggest FO packaging player, taking 76.7% of the market. Together, the top three Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) companies, ASE, Amkor, and JCET, TSMC took over 90% of the fan-out market in 2022.

Chinese OSATs are penetrating the fan-out packaging supply chain

Regional independence in chip manufacturing is becoming a big trend amid supply disruptions. In the last five years, there has been a growing trend in China to invest in advanced packaging technologies, and many companies are entering the FOWLP or FOPLP businesses.

Amid chip and substrate shortages, fan-out gained popularity as it enables a no-substrate solution.

Chiplets and heterogenous integration have become means to leverage more mature lithographic manufacturing nodes. Therefore, as the US has imposed restrictions related to advanced technologies, advanced packaging has become one of the strategies of interest for Chinese-based companies to be able to compete.

The focus of most Chinese OSAT investments will first be on low-density packages, which provide a faster return on investment, but a roadmap towards chiplets and heterogeneous integration is a reality.

The new pool of Chinese fan-out suppliers includes ECHINT, formerly ESWIN, Casmeit, SiPLP, JSI, Yibu, Sky Semiconductor, and Fozhixin Microelectronics. Together these companies are investing more than $2.5B for advanced packaging capabilities.

Chiplets and heterogenous integration are driving fan-out packaging developments

Fan-out packaging has evolved from a low-end packaging technology into a high-performance integration platform, with growing adoption in the High Performance Computing (HPC), networking, automotive and high-end mobile markets. One of the major market trends driving fan-out packaging technology is large die partitioning into chiplets and heterogeneous integration. Fan-out is a cost-effective platform that enables high-bandwidth and high-density die-to-die interconnections through Redistribution Layer (RDL)-based processes. UHD FO will replace Si Interposers in the future through innovative FO-on-substrate and FO-embedded bridge solutions.

TSMC is the market leader in high-performance FO solutions for high-end computing, networking, and HPC applications. ASE, SPIL, Samsung, JCET, Amkor, PTI, TFME and Nepes are developing similar solutions with huge potential to compete. Though core FO is the main OSAT market, the main developments are in HD and UHD FO technologies.

FOPLP has been hyped as the solution for widespread adoption of FO, especially for large package sizes, but it still presents technical challenges and there is a lack of demand to achieve the desired cost benefit.

Glossary

Report’s objectives

Scope of the report

Methodologies & Definition

About the Authors

Companies cited

What we got right, what we got wrong 

Who should be interested in this report 

Three-Page Summary 

Executive Summary

Context

Market Forecasts 

• Fan-out Packaging Revenue Forecasts 
• Fan-out Packaging Volume Forecasts 

Market Shares 

• Manufacturer Market Share 
• Market Share of Fan-Out Technologies 
• Business Model Market Share 

Supply chain 

• Supply Chain Overview 
• Fan-out Key Supplier Activity Summary 
• Analysis of the Latest Developments in the Supply Chain

Technology trends

• Fan-Out Packaging Market Trends & Drivers 
• Fan-out Packaging Technology and Roadmaps
• Fan-out Packaging Technology by Manufacturers 

Commercialization Status

Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging

• Panel Packaging Trends and Motivations 
• FOPLP Supply Chain & New Developments  

Conclusions

Yole Group Related Products 

Yole Group Corporate Presentation 

Key Features

• 2018-2028 market forecast in package units, revenues ($M), and wafer production volumes.
• Market forecast by end-market and market class (Core FO, HD FO, UHD FO).
• Average Selling Price analysis, per market class.
• Market shares ok key manufacturers.
• Market shares by business model and by competitive technologies.
• Supply chain analysis with a focus on China’s fan-out landscape.
• Technologies trends and new commercialized products.
• Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging, including area and cost effiency analysis.

Product objectives

• To identify and describe which technologies can be classified as ‘Fan-out packaging’ and define market classes
• To analyze key market drivers, benefits and challenges of fan-out packages for the different applications
• To describe the different existing technologies, their trends and roadmaps
• To analyze the supply chain and fan-out packaging market landscape
• To provide a market forecast for the coming years, and estimate future trends

Fan-out packaging markets are studied through the following analyses:

• Top-down model based on end-system demand and market valuations based on top-down and bottom-up models
• Market share based on production projections
• Supply value chain analysis
• State-of-the-art technologies and trends
• End-user adoption for the various applications
• Transition from Fan-Out Wafer-Level Packaging to Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging