Market and Technology Trends

Li-ion Battery Packs for Automotive and Stationary Storage Applications 2020

By Yole Intelligence — Mar 2020

The battery pack component market continues to be driven mainly by electric vehicles.

What's new

Deeper insight into battery pack components such as battery management systems, safety devices and thermal management
Deeper insight into different technologies currently used in battery packs and related technology trends and supply chain

THE BATTERY PACK MARKET IS DRIVENT BY EV DEMAND

The main driver for battery pack applications is the growing electric vehicle (EV) market. This market is booming mainly due to the need to significantly reduce average vehicle fleet CO₂ emissions to match governments’ strict CO₂ emission reduction targets and thus avoid heavy penalties. The end applications of battery packs analyzed in this report include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), full battery vehicles (BEVs), electric buses and trucks, as well as stationary battery energy storage applications.

The total annual demand for battery packs for the aforementioned applications will grow from $26.6B in 2019 to $137.1B by 2025. The growth rate for different applications varies, as their market dynamics have different drivers. The demand will be mainly driven by full electric vehicles, specifically BEVs, which will represent 75.9 % of the total demand in GWh by 2025. PHEVs enable big CO₂ emission reductions due to their electric engines, while keeping long driving ranges thanks to their Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs). They will take the second place in our ranking of total demand measured in GWh by 2025.

The high level of air pollution in some big cities is driving deployment of electric buses. Buses stop frequently and can potentially charge at each stop or terminus station, making them well-suited for battery power. Electric trucks can then benefit from battery and charging station technology development for buses. The use of electric trucks in the urban environment helps further reduce air pollution.

Stationary battery energy business is not the first priority of most battery manufacturers that are focusing today mainly on electric mobility. The market growth for stationary battery systems is growing and is mainly driven by renewable energy sources, mainly photovoltaics and wind, and electricity grid regulation. EV/PHEV charging stations have emerged as a new interesting market driver for stationary battery energy storage solutions to “smooth” strong electricity demand peaks while charging many EV/PHEVs at the same time.

THE MARKET FOR EACH BATTERY PACK COMPONENT IS GROWING

Battery cells form the main part of the global battery pack market studied in this report, 71.2% in 2019 and 67% by 2025. Although the cell price in $/kWh will decrease further, the overall cell capacity per pack will increase, thus keeping the cell share within a battery pack at a high level.

The second largest part of the battery pack market will be the thermal management, followed by battery management system (BMS). The importance of better thermal management is growing with the increasing cell energy density and battery pack energy capacity as well as growing needs for batteries compatible with very fast charging. As fast charging leads to high energy generation in a battery pack, an enhanced heat dissipation and temperature regulation become crucial. The importance of BMSs is growing with increasing requirements to accurately determine remaining battery capacity, and with increasing cell and pack energy capacities. An enhanced BMS also allows better using of the energy stored in a battery pack, thus reducing needs for battery pack capacity increase.

According to Yole Développement’s (Yole) analysis, there is no big technology breakthrough expected in coming years regarding battery cells and other battery pack components. The main trends will involve existing technology solutions, which will be further improved and more widely deployed. Technology and cost improvement will be steady.

Our market forecast has been made during the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The impact of this virus on automotive and battery industry is significant. It is hard to evaluate how long this crisis will last and how its duration will negatively impact the manufactured volumes of conventional vehicles and EV/PHEV. The numbers presented in this report for 2020 might be thus reduced in the case of prolonged crisis due to coronavirus.

THE BATTERY PACK MARKET IS GROWING AND ATTRACTING MORE PLAYERS – WHO IS LOSING AND WINNING ?

According to Yole analysis, battery pack suppliers face significant challenges from newcomers attracted by the fast-growing market, dominant position of some cell suppliers, and strong price pressure on all battery application segments.

Most battery pack suppliers are battery integrators, especially carmakers. They purchase battery cells mainly from leading suppliers like CATL, LG Chem, Panasonic and Samsung SDI, and build their battery pack using other components, including BMSs, heating/cooling systems, electrical interconnections, safety components, and housings. Carmakers are intruding ever more into battery cell design and in some cases also into cell manufacturing, as in the cases of Tesla and Daimler. Instead of purchasing cells, some battery integrators purchase battery modules directly and they just integrate modules into battery packs. The modular battery pack approach enables further manufacturing cost reductions and keeps the design flexibility for battery packs. Battery integrators can increase the differentiating added value further by carefully designing the battery pack, and choosing components including the BMS, thermal management solutions, safety devices, electrical interconnects, housing and assembly.

Some carmakers have developed specific internal know-how and established tight supply chain partnerships. Therefore they might remain at least partially stuck with their historical technology and integration choices, while their competitors will move rapidly towards latest technologies and full vehicle electrification. The companies with tight technology and supplier partnerships may lose some business in the future, but not because their technology is bad. Instead they will not easily be able to adopt the latest innovations, reduce costs by choosing optimal suppliers and follow customer need evolution rapidly enough. A possible option for companies tight with their suppliers would be to spin-off a part of their activities into a new company, to create a new brand.

It is also crucial to shorten the development time for new products and reduce the development cost. Tesla has successfully demonstrated an extremely short development time for new car models. Other EV/HEV manufacturers should shorten their development time while maintaining product quality to avoid costly vehicle recalls. This can be enabled by an optimal development strategy, use of vehicle platforms like MEB and PPE from Volkswagen or E-GMP from Hyundai, and a modular approach in the battery pack design and assembly. As customers increasingly desire a choice of different electric car models, the platform approach would find further added value here.

There are many new partnerships, joint ventures and acquisitions ongoing within the supply chain. These reinforce companies’ positions, secure access to strategic materials such as lithium and cobalt and battery cells, ensure growth, and facilitate easier entries into new markets.

Key features of the report

2019-2025 market in GWh, units, and $B for lithium-ion battery packs in battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles electric buses and trucks and stationary battery applications
2019-2025 market in $B for key battery pack components: Li-ion cells, battery management systems, thermal management components, safety components, electrical interconnects, housings and assembly
Supply chain analysis for battery packs and their main components
Insight into battery pack components, main technologies, and innovations
Technology trends in Li-ion battery packs, cells and other pack components

Report objective

Determine the market value for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery packs and their components including battery management system, thermal management, safety components for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), battery electric vehicles (BEV), electric trucks and buses, and stationary battery energy storage systems
Demonstrate the strong, consistently-growing potential for power electronics players including suppliers of power ICs, fuses, sensors, and thermal management solutions, in the energy storage business, based on Li-ion battery technologies
Describe the battery pack supply chain landscape, including the key players for battery cells, battery packs, and battery pack components and associated business models
Discuss market opportunities for players that can supply materials, devices, or technology solutions to the Li-ion battery pack industry
Provide insights into different technologies currently used in battery packs and related technology trends

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