Market and Technology Trends

Memory Packaging 2023

By Yole Intelligence — Apr 2023

With 77% of total memory packaging revenue forecast in 2028, advanced packaging is growing in importance.

YINTR23328

Key Features

Overview of the semiconductor memory market.
Provide an understanding of memory packaging technologies and markets:
2022-2028 market forecast: revenue (US$), volume (number of packages) and wafer shipments with breakdown by type of package, type of memory technology, as well as end-market.
Market drivers, challenges, opportunities and technology requirements by market segment.
Detail and analyze the competitive landscape

What's new

Updated ASP modelling for Hybrid Bonding
China top OSATs market share estimation

Product objectives

Present an overview of the semiconductor memory market:
Market trends for DRAM, NAND, NOR, (NV)SRAM, emerging NVM, and other stand-alone memory technologies.
Provide an understanding of memory packaging technologies and markets:
Technical characteristics, manufacturing methods, advantages/limitations, and development status for various packaging approaches, including leadframe, wire-bond, WLCSP, flip-chip and TSV-based stacking (HBM and 3DS), and hybrid bonding (3D NAND).
Packaging trends for five end markets: data centers, PCs, mobile phones, and consumer and automotive applications.
Packaging trends for DRAM, NAND, and other stand-alone technologies, including NOR Flash, MRAM, PCM, ReRAM, and more.
Offer market forecasts for memory packaging :
2022-2028 market forecast: revenue (US$), volume (number of packages), and wafer shipments with breakdown by type of package, type of memory technology, and end-market.
Evolution of ASP by type of package, type of memory technology, and end-market.
Describe the memory packaging business:
Market drivers, challenges, opportunities, and technology requirements for five end markets, roadmaps, and players.
Analysis of the memory packaging supply chain and players’ dynamics with a focus on OSATs and memory IDMs.
Delineate and analyze the competitive landscape:
Recent acquisitions and funding, latest company news, key players by technology and application.

Increasing penetration of advanced packaging will drive memory packaging market growth

Overall memory packaging revenue is estimated to be $15.1B in 2022 excluding testing. This corresponds to around 10% of overall stand-alone memory revenue, which was around $144B in 2022. We forecast that revenue will reach $31.8B in 2028 with a CAGR22-28 of 13%.

In terms of packaging revenue, DRAM will grow with a CAGR22-28 around 13% while NAND will grow faster, with a CAGR22-28 of 17%.

Other memory technologies, such as NOR Flash, EEPROM, SRAM and emerging Non-Volatile Memory (NVM), are forecasted to grow with a CAGR22-28 of around 3%.

Advanced packaging (AP) has become a key enabler of technological progress for NAND and DRAM. Among the different AP approaches, hybrid bonding has emerged as the most promising solution to manufacture higher bit density and higher-performance memory devices.

Whether its use is intended to enable higher performance or smaller form factors, advanced packaging is an increasingly important factor in the memory value equation. From representing about 47% of memory packaging revenue in 2022, advanced packaging will represent 77% by 2028.

Wire-bond dominates the memory packaging market, followed by flip-chip

Wire-bond is the dominant packaging approach. It is widely used for mobile memory and storage applications, followed by flip-chip packaging, which continues its expansion in the DRAM business.

The adoption of flip-chip packaging with short interconnects is essential to enable high bandwidth per pin. While wire-bond packaging may still meet DDR5 performance requirements, we expect flip-chip packaging to become a must-have for DDR6.

Leadframe remains widely used for NOR Flash and other memory technologies and is the package with the highest volume of unit shipments.

WLCSP is being increasingly adopted for consumer/wearable applications requiring a small form factor, such as True Wireless Stereo earbuds. It is found in low-density memory devices such as NOR Flash, EEPROM, and SLC NAND.

Advanced packaging is becoming increasingly important in the memory business due to the following:

Flip-chip and 3DS packages are becoming the norm for DRAM modules in data centers and personal computers.
The demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is growing fast, propelled by Artificial Intelligence and high-performance computing applications.
Hybrid bonding is part of the 3D NAND scaling path.

OSATs account for more than one third of the memory packaging revenue

In 2022, we estimate that 66% of memory packaging revenue was generated by Integrated Device Manufacturer memory companies such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, or Western Digital, and the remaining 34% by Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) companies.

Memory IDMs are also key companies propelling the growth of advanced packaging for memory devices:

Most NAND manufacturers mentioned their intentions to adopt wafer-to-wafer stacking approaches like YMTC’s Xtacking technology.
Hybrid bonding will be needed in the coming years to continue to improve memory bandwidth, power efficiency, and minimize the HBM stack thickness.

CXMT and YMTC – the two leading memory manufacturers in China – rely entirely on OSATs for the packaging and testing of their memory devices. They are working with the major Chinese players for memory packaging. As such, they will face headwinds due to recent U.S. commercial restrictions implemented in Q4-2022.

Other countries can develop their semiconductor industries more safely, such as Malaysia, Vietnam or India. Back-end facilities are usually the primary choice for semiconductor investments in these countries.

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Memory Packaging 2023

With 77% of total memory packaging revenue forecast in 2028, advanced packaging is growing in importance.

Increasing penetration of advanced packaging will drive memory packaging market growth

Wire-bond dominates the memory packaging market, followed by flip-chip

OSATs account for more than one third of the memory packaging revenue