Quantum Technologies 2021

What we got right, what we got wrong 5

Scope of the report 7

Report methodology 8

Report objectives 11

Who should be interested by this report? 12

3-Page summary 13

Executive summary 16

Context 49

Quantum computer 60

• Architecture
• Quantum software

Quantum cryptography 88

Quantum sensors 105

• Quantum magnetometers and gravimeters
• Atomic clocks
• New developments

Market forecasts 117

• Computers
• Cryptography
• Sensing/timing

Market trends 135

• Pharmaceutical
• Energy and chemistry
• Transportation
• Banks and finance
• Defense and aerospace

Market shares and supply chain 165

• Fund raising
• Collaborations
• Players
• Market shares

Technology trends 192

• Superconducting
• Quantum annealer
• Photons
• Silicon
• Quasi particles

• NV centers
• Trapped ions
• Cold atoms
• Others

Outlook 234

About Yole Développement 238

A HUGE FIELD OF POSSIBILITIES

Quantum technology covers a wide range of applications addressing key industrial simulation and optimization challenges. These span chemicals/materials research, logistics, financial services, healthcare, life science, manufacturing and defense, drug discovery, protein structure prediction, investment risk analysis, feedstock management, vehicle routing and network optimization. It is also a critical national issue to many countries as it addresses secure communications and database management linked to national security. In our report we cover quantum-based solutions for computing, communications, sensors and timing.

From 2012, investors began to have interest in start-ups in quantum. Almost $2B has been invested in about 80 start-ups including computing, software, cryptography and sensors.
Companies developing hardware have the largest share, exceeding 60%. Many deals have been made in 2020, showing that COVID-19 did not slow down the interest.

Quantum computing is still subject to technology and timing uncertainty, but investments continue. Pharmaceutical is today attracting most of the attention for quantum computing.
It could be ready to be used in 5-10 years for drug development. For drug discovery it could be ready in 10-20 years or longer. Following the adoption of quantum in pharma, other
applications could follow such as energy, defense, chemistry, transportation, banks, and finance. Quantum communication and cryptography has been deployed for many years now and 5G could be the next opportunity for quantum key distribution (QKD).

Quantum sensors use quantum phenomena to measure a physical property with higher sensitivity and precision compared to nonquantum sensors. Quantum effects have been
used for a long time in Quantum Cascade Lasers (QCLs) emitting in the Medium and Far InfraRed (MIR and FIR), used for spectroscopy.
The current quantum sensor market involves gravimeters and timing solutions.

The total market value for quantum technologies including computing, cryptography and sensing will grow from about $340M in 2020 to $2,908M in 2030. Quantum as a Service (QaaS) will be 65% of the total.

THE ROAD TO THE QUANTUM COMPUTERS WILL BE MARKED BY VARIOUS TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS

There is a long road before companies realize a universal quantum gate-based computer. Today, only one company – D-Wave Systems in Canada – is manufacturing and shipping quantum annealers. Although they use 2,000 to 5,000 qubits, these Ising machines are today restricted to optimization problems. Quantum emulators are another topic, where Japan is strongly involved. The next step will be to develop Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) machines with 50-100 logical qubits. Then the holy grail will be to develop a universal quantum computer with a minimum of 100 logical qubits, corresponding to 100,000 physical qubits.

Recently, another approach has emerged with the development of quantum accelerators. They will be used in conjunction with Central and Graphics Processor Units (CPUs and GPUs) or Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) in a High Performance Computer (HPC). Calculations will be distributed according to usage on one or the other chip, quantum or non-quantum. This is a mid-term approach to the use of hybrid quantum computers using both semiconductor logic chips and quantum accelerators with well distinct roles.

THE QUBIT RACE CONTINUES, WITH LARGE PLAYERS CHALLENGED BY NUMEROUS STARTUPS

The progress of quantum computers is often related to the number of qubits. It is generally agreed that a minimum of 50 logical qubits will be necessary to have a useful quantum computer. Research continues into the development of qubit technologies that need to be scalable, have low sensitivity to noise and be able to work in an environment that would ideally not need ultra-high vacuum and/or cryogenic temperatures. Major technological barriers to overcome in the future are scalability, which needs CMOS, thermodynamic control, which nearly every quantum technology requires, and logical interactions between conventional and quantum processing systems.

Using this combination of HPC processors and quantum accelerators will solve selected computational tasks more efficiently. The current investigated qubit technologies analyzed in the report are: superconducting, quantum annealers, photon qubits, semiconductors, quasiparticles, nitrogen vacancies, trapped ions and cold atoms.

Superconducting junctions have reached the industrialization stage with D-Wave. Recently, two technologies have gained more attention: photon qubits and trapped atoms. The first one comes because PsiQuantum in the US is today the best funded quantum computer company. The second comes because IonQ in the US, a developer of trapped-ion quantum computers, announced a $2 billion deal through a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) that would make it the first publicly traded firm dedicated to quantum computers.

1QBit, A*Quantum, A.P.E., Alibaba, Alice&Bob, Alpine Quantum, Amazon, Ankh.1, Anyon Systems, ApexQubit, AppliedQubit, ArQit, Artiste-qb.net, AtomComputing, AtomSensors, Atos, Aurea Technology, Aurora Quantum Technologies, Automatski, Axion Technologies, Beit.tech, Black Brane System, Bleximo, BlueFors Cryogenics, Bosch, Boxcat, Bra-Ketscience, BraneCell, Cambridge Quantum Computing, Coax Co., ColdQuanta, Cryoconcept, Cryomech, Cryptalabs, Cryptomathic, CryptoNext Security, D slit technologies, Delft Circuits bv, Deutsche Telekom, D-wave, EeroQ, Elyah, Entanglement Partners, Entanglement Technologies, Entropica Labs, EvolutionQ, Fathom Computing, Fujitsu, Google, GTN LTD, h-bar, Honeywell, Horizon, HP, HQS, Huawei, HyperLight, IBM, ID Quantique, imasenic, InfiniQuant, Intel, Intelline, IonQ, IQM, Isara, Jos Quantum, Ketita Labs, KETS Quantum Security, KETS Quantum Security, Kiutra, Labber Quantum, LightOn, Lockheed Martin, Luminous, MagiQ, MDR, Microsoft, M-Labs, M Squared, Multiverse Computing, Muquans, Netramark, NQCG, Nu Quantum, NuCrypt, ONERA, Origin Quantum Computing, Orolia, Oxford Instruments, Oxford Quantum Circuits, Pasqal, Phase Space Computing, PhaseCraft, Photec, PhotonSpot, Post Quantum, ProteinQure, PsiQ, PTB, Qandi, Qasky, Qbitlogic, Qblox, QC Ware, Q-ctrl, QEYnet, Qilimanjaro, Qindom, Q-Lion, QLM, Qnami, Qontrol Systems, Qrithm, Qrypt, Qu&Co, Quandela, Quantastica, QuantFi, QuantiCor Security, Quantika, Quantopo, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum Brilliance, Quantum Circuits Inc, Quantum Communications Hub, Quantum Factory, Quantum Impenetrable, Quantum Machines, Quantum Motion Technologies, Quantum Phi, Quantum Xchange, QuantumCTek, QuantumX, Quartiq, Qubalt , Qubit Reset LLC, Qubitekk, Qubitera LLC, QuDot, Quintessence Labs, QUiX, Qulab, Qunasys, Qunnect, Qunulabs, QuPIC , Quside, QuSpin, QxBranch, Rahko, RayCal, Raytheon, Rigetti Computing, Riverlane, Scontel, Seedevices, SeeQC.EU, SHYN, Silicon Quantum Computing Pty. Ltd, Single Quantum, SK Telecom, SoftwareQ, Solid State AI, Sparrow Quantum, SpeQtral, Strangeworks, Supracon, Syrlinks, TMD, Tokyo Quantum Computing, Toptica, Toshiba, Trustis, TundraSystems Global ltd, Turing, TwinLeaf, Universal Quantum, VectorAtomic, Xanadu, Xofia, Zapata Computing, ZY4 and more.

Report objectives

• Provide market data on quantum technologies: computing, telecommunication and sensing
• Shipments and revenue, up to 2040 for computing, for both hardware and services
• Expected market developments
• Market shares
• Describe quantum technologies and challenges
• Technology choices
• Roadmaps
• What are the major drivers? What will the market look like in 2030?
• Analyze major technological trends
• Developments in existing and future technologies
• Pros and cons
• Enable a thorough understanding of the value chain, infrastructure and players for quantum technologies and the quantum computing market
• Extensive lists of players, and their technology portfolios
• Industrial supply chain information
• Business model discussion
• Investment analysis