RF for Radio Access Network (RAN) 2023

Airgain, Airspan, Akash Systems, Altum RF, Amphenol, Ampleon, Analog Devices, Anokiwave, AT&T, Baicells, Beamwave, BLU wireless, Bowei, BridgeWave, Broadcom, Cambium Networks, CCS, CETC, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, Comba, CommScope, Cree, DragonWave, E band communication, EE, Ericsson, Eta Devices, Etisalat, Dynax, Filtronic, Fujikura, Fujitsu, GCT, Great Microwave, Guerilla RF, HiSilicon, Huatai, Huawei, Iconic RF, IDT, IgniteNet, Infineon, Jio, JMA Wireless, Kathrein, KDDI, KT, Kumu Networks, LG U+, LightPointe, Linear Technology, MACOM, Marvell, Mathworks, Mavenir, Maxim Integrated, MCV microwave, Microchip, MicroSemi, MicroTik, Mitsubishi Electric, Mixcomm, Mobix Labs, Molex, Monaco Telecom, Movandi, MTI Wireless Edge Limited, Murata, NEC, Neditek, Nokia, NXP, Orange, Peraso, Pharrowtech, Phazr, Pivotal Commware, pSemi, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Radwin, Renesas, RFHIC, RFS, RFWin, Samsung, Satixfy, Sivers Semiconductor, Siklu, SK Telecom, Skyworks, Sofant Technologies, Sprint, ST Microelectronics, STC, Sumitomo Electric Device Innovations, Sunrise, Swisscom, Tmytek, T Mobile, TDK, Techplayon, Telstra, Texas Instrument, TIM, UMS, Verana, Verizon, Viva Mobile, Vodafone, Wave PIA, Wavice, Wolfspeed, Xilinx, ZTE, and more.

Key Features

• 2023-2028 forecast for base station (massive MIMO and RRH), radio units, RF lines and RF front-End components (Munits, $M).
• 2023-2028 forecast for Sub-6 GHz small cells and mmWave radio units, RF lines and RF Front-End components (Munits, $M).
• 2023-2028 wafer forecast (GaN, LDMOS, GaAs, SiGe, RFSOI…).
• Market trends for telecom infrastructure, energy consumption, 5G monetization, 5G advanced and 6G.
• Overview of the telecom infrastructure supply chain, including OEM and device makers with RAN and RF Front-End market share.

What’s new? 

• Macro BTS forecast and small cell forecast are now independent for system and RF component levels.
• Focus on PA for small cells and beamformers.
• 5G mmWave status on a large scale (Smartphone, Infra, FWA, IoT)

Product objectives

• Provide volume forecasts for Macro / Micro BTS, Sub-6GHz Small cell and mmWave radio units.
• Provide market metrics and forecast for RF Front-End components of each systems.
• Provide wafer forecast for RF Front-End components.
• Analyze the drivers and challenges for telecom infrastructure with a focus on 5G mmWave penetration status.
• Provide the 5G advanced and 6G roadmap with key evolutions and challenges
• Present main technological trends.
• Oversee the main players across the Radio Access Network market and RF Front-End supply chain.
• Provide RAN market shares and details on RF Front-End market shares.
• Analyze how the business models and supply-chains are evolving.

Glossaries 

Report’s objectives

Scope of the report

Methodologies & definition

About the authors

Companies cited

What we got right, what we got wrong  

3 Page Summary

Executive summary  

Market forecasts  

• Macro & Micro BTS Forecast  
• Macro & Micro BTS RF Component Forecast   
• Small Cell Forecast  
• Wafer Forecast  

Market trends  

• General Market Dynamics  
• Beyond 5G: 5G Advanced and 6G  
• Regional Dynamics  
• Network Transformation  
• What to look-out for  

Market shares & supply chain  

Technology trends  

• Cellular Network Overview  
• Beamforming and Massive MIMO  
• RF Front-End Architecture  
• Components and Technology Platforms  
  • Power Amplifiers  
  • RF Switches  
  • Filters  
  • Beamformers  
  • What to look-out for  

Outlook  

Yole Group corporate presentation  

RF Front-End market is expected to reach $4.2B in 2023

With the exponential growth of mobile traffic, operators continue to invest in 5G networks. At the end of 2022, the mobile market represented 1.23 billion smartphones and 6.9 million radio units, of which more than 600 million smartphones and almost 1.5 million radios were 5G.

Chinese MNOs maintained their rapid BTS rollout in 2022, representing half of the global BTS deployment. Indian operators are ambitiously deploying 5G networks. This will lead to a peak in radio unit deployment in 2023, with more than 7.5 million units deployed globally.

The RF component market for macro BTS reached $3.2B in 2022 and is forecast to grow to $3.8B in 2028. In 2023, we expect to see significant increases in volume and value, mainly driven by the launch of India’s 5G network. The market is expected to continue growing in numbers, supported by a higher penetration of massive MIMO antennas.

There are many potential use cases for Sub-6 GHz small cells and 5G millimeter waves, but the technologies have difficulty penetrating the market. The growth is slow because the industry is focusing on C-band massive MIMO deployment. Nevertheless, we anticipate a steady growth of small cells with a substantial ramp-up starting in 2024. The RFFE market for small cells and mmWave radio is expected to be more than $400M in 2028.

NXP dominated the RF Front-End market, with a 35% share.

The top 5 RAN players (Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung) are consolidating their leading positions. Huawei and ZTE increased their market share thanks to massive deployment in China, and Samsung is capitalizing on its early adoption of v-RAN and O-RAN strategies.

The RF Front-End ecosystem for 4G/5G wireless infrastructure is complex, technologically. A few players stand out with large market shares amongst which: NXP, Qorvo, SEDI, and Analog Devices. NXP is the uncontested leader with a 35% market share of the overall RFFE market. At the wafer level, the growth will be handled by IDMs such as NXP and Infineon and major foundries such as GlobalFoundries, Tower Semiconductor, and ST Microelectronics.

The US / China trade war is polarizing the supply chain between China and the rest of the world. As a result, China is accelerating the development of a local supply chain and sees more and more companies emerging in the RFFE field.

RAN is moving toward 5G Stand Alone and more massive MIMO

The beginning of 5G worldwide was non-Standalone 5G (NSA) to ensure a quick rollout and a smooth coexistence with 4G LTE. 5G Standalone (SA) requires new investments but enables new use cases, such as network slicing, which can be used for monetization by MNOs.

Radios are using higher-order MIMO systems, which greatly impact the number of RFFE components. There is a trend toward lower power electronics and higher integration levels with PA modules of 10W and 5W for 32T32R and 64T64R AAS, integrating drivers and pre-drivers.

The need for power consumption optimization is accelerating the transition toward GaN-SiC final stage power amplifiers. Final stage PA represents 45% of the RFFE market. GaN is more efficient than LDMOS, so most new AAS designs are GaN-based. GaN-Si is expected to enter the market for massive MIMO antennas in the mid-band, supported by Infineon’s PA modules.

Looking at the longer term, research has started in 6G. From a technical point of view, the main challenges will be transmitting THz frequencies (100 – 300 GHz), where new technologies, devices, and components are required. InP or SiGe are considered potential technologies to enable 6G.