Market and Technology Trends
Semiconductor Trends in Automotive 2022
By Yole Intelligence —
Expected to reach $80.7B and 11.6% of the semiconductor industry in 2027, the automotive semiconductor segment is going through disruptive transitions and a new deal.
- Status of the automotive industry
- Overview of the technological and industrial challenges
- Analysis of new entrants and changes in the value chain
- Player positioning
- Overview of automated driving, electrification, and connectivity in cars
- Market forecasts in modules, units, and wafers for semiconductors in automotive
- Forecast of semiconductor wafer size and nodes for in cars (for different wafer materials)
- Technology roadmaps
- Update of OEM car shipments
- Focus on supply chain strategies for automotive semiconductors
- Focus on new entrants’ strategies
- Focus on Chinese players
- To provide an in-depth understanding of the changing automotive industry ecosystem and supply chain players
- To detail the current and future internal and external factors affecting the durability of the car industry
- To provide a complete overview of the current technology trends and a 2021-2027 market forecast in US$, units, and wafers for cars. This includes Connectivity, Lighting, Sensing, ADAS, Electrification, and Computing
- To provide key technical insights and analyses about future technology trends and challenges.
- Key technology choices
- Technology dynamics
- Emerging technologies and roadmaps
- Semiconductor content in cars
Available on our Yole Group All-Inclusive Automotive Package
Alibaba, Ambarella, AMS, Analog Devices, Anhui Jianghuai Automotive Group, Apple, Aptiv, ARM, Aryballe, AUO, Autotalks, BAIC Group, Baidu, BMW Group, BOSCH, BYD Auto, Century Goldray Semiconductor, Changan Automobile Group, Chery Automobile, Cityhop, Continental, Cree, Daimler Group, Danfoss, Denso, Dongfeng Motor Corp., DriveNow, Everlight, Excelitas, Faurecia, China FAW Group Corp., FCA, FLIR, Ford Group, Global Power Technology, GlobalFoundries, GM Group, Great Wall Motor Company Ltd., Guangzhou Automobile Group, Hamamatsu, Hella, Honda, Huawei, Hyundai Kia Automotive Group, Ibeo, Infineon, Isuzu, Kyocera, Lextar, LG Innotek, Lumileds, Magna, Mahindra & Mahindra, Mazda, MediaTek, Melexis, Mobileye, modo, Murata, Nvidia, NXP, OmniVision, ON Semiconductor, Osram, Ouster, Panasonic, Perodua, PSA, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Quanergy, Redpine Signals, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance, Renesas, Rohm, SAIC, Samsung, Semikron, Senseair, Sensirion, Sharp, Siemens, SK Hynix, SmartEye, Sony, STMicroelectronics, Subaru, Suzuki, Tata Group, Tesla, TI, TowerJazz, Toyota Group, TSMC, Uber, UMC, Umicore, Velodyne, Veoneer, Vishat, Visteon, VW Group, Waymo, Wingtec Technology, Wolfson, Xilinx, Xperi, ZF, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and more.
Automotive semiconductor growth is inevitable.
The automotive semiconductor market is showing continuous growth, which is inevitable as the penetration of semiconductor-based applications, such as higher levels of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and electrification, increases. Despite a relatively flat light vehicle market, the market for semiconductor chips is expected to increase from $44B in 2021 to $80.7B in 2027 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1%. This represents a semiconductor chip value of ~$550/car, growing to ~$912 in 2027. It is also an increase in the number of chips implemented in cars, from ~820 chips today to ~1100 chips per car in 2027.
The rapid increase in car electrification demands new types of substrates, such as SiC for power electronics. It is expected to represent 1,130 kwafers in 2027. While still low compared to the ~30,500 kwafers of Si expected for 2027, SiC will grow faster than Si and GaAs/Sapphire. ADAS is also an important driver, and MCUs with cutting-edge technology as low as 16 nm / 10 nm will go into ADAS, including radar and other sensor controls. Levels 4 and 5 of autonomy will drive increasing demand for more memory (DRAM) and computing power.
Just-in-time manufacturing is over
For electrification, vertical integration is becoming popular among OEMs and can work out in multiple ways: full integration down to the component level, system integration and subcontracting build-to-print parts, strategic cooperation/direct investments with key component suppliers, etc. The conventional automotive supply chain needs to examine its position thoroughly and transform through JVs, M&As, and new investments and divestments to retain its competitive edge. Although semiconductors are critical to the automotive industry in the ongoing disruptive transition, most players, both OEMs and T1 suppliers, do not have well-defined strategies for semiconductors yet. Specific expertise in semiconductor technologies and their supply chain, both internally and externally, is urgently needed to prepare for the future.
Supply chain management will change as OEMs will need to negotiate directly with chip manufacturers, learn from the consumer industry, and keep “buffer stock”. They must work closer with the chip manufacturers on volume forecasts and long-term orders. Just-in-time manufacturing, pioneered by Toyota in the 1960s, no longer works with chip manufacturers in the current geopolitical climate.
The growing sophistication of vehicles means new technologies
Battery electric vehicles have a somewhat different cost structure, resonating with fast-advancing technologies. The main devices required for vehicle electrification are Si IGBT and SiC MOSFET modules, used in the main inverters for e-motor traction. Rapid adoption of SiC is forecasted thanks to its better efficiency and integration with 800V technologies.
Radars and cameras are the main sensors used by OEMs as they perform well and are relatively cheap. During the last few years, LiDAR sensors have been slowly entering the automotive industry to provide more automated driving functions. This technology is still young, with many varied possibilities, but consolidation will come, enabling significant price decreases and more extensive adoption.
Thirty years ago, OEMs saw a minimal need for computing capabilities, but computing is now becoming increasingly important. OEMs are investing heavily in it, as VW group did in creating the CARIAD division in 2020. In addition, some OEMs are developing their own computing chips. This is already the case for Tesla with its FSD chips. Recently, Nio started developing its own chips for self-driving applications.
About the authors
Scope of the report
Methodology and definitions
Semiconductor trends and forecast
- Where are semiconductors in cars?
- 2021-27 Semiconductor market for automotive applications
- Semiconductor share for automotive applications
- Wafer shipment volume – all wafer sizes
- Wafer shipment volume by node
- Wafer shipments by type of substrate
- Sensing roadmap for automotive applications
- Processing and memory roadmap for automotive applications
- Semiconductor content breakdown in a car
- Summary of technology trends for power electronics
- A trend towards increasing integration with various functionalities
- 800V systems: adoption speed and milestones
- Evolution of functionalities toward full autonomy
- The ‘Twenty cameras per car’ roadmap
- The evolving mission of automotive radars
- LiDAR technology roadmap
- Driver monitoring and occupant monitoring systems
- Interior lighting development – Applications
- Infotainment and entertainment in cars
- Software is a new opportunity to generate revenue streams for OEMs
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