Market and Technology Trends

Sensors for Robotic Goods Transportation 2021

By Yole Intelligence — Apr 2021

Robotic goods transportation is an ongoing paradigm shift for logistics, powered by numerous industrial sensor technologies.

What's new

Robo-trucks update
Added last-mile delivery road analysis
Added last-mile delivery curbside analysis
Added drone delivery forecast

GOODS TRANSPORTATION IS THE KEY USE CASE IN THE ROBOTIC SENSOR MARKET’S EMERGENCE

In the last decade, the emergence of e-commerce champions has been a paradigm change in the logistics landscape and its associated technologies. Robotic technologies were initially developed within the boundaries of factories and logistics warehouses, but they are now spreading throughout logistics. You find them in port terminal operations, long haul trucking,
mining dump truck operations, and even last mile deliveries for pizzas or online purchases.
While autonomous cars have been advertised for years as transforming mobility, as discussed in Yole Développement’s “Sensors for Robotic Mobility 2020” report, the robotization of goods transportation will be more immediate and dramatic as significant elements are already in place. In fact, logistics might offer a trial run for the whole autonomous vehicle (AV) industry.
Some players, such as Waymo, Aurora, We Ride and Plus.ai, have a double play, personal mobility and transportation of goods. More
are solely focused on transporting goods, such as Tu Simple, Kodiak, Nuro and Embark. The emerging drone delivery ecosystem is a perfect example of this specialization trend. It gives plenty of room for future consolidation, such as the recent acquisition of robo-truck player Ike by Nuro, the dominant last-mile road player in the US.

SENSOR TECHNOLOGIES TO SERVE THIS MARKET EXIST AND SHOULD BE PREPARED

Whether it is a LiDAR, a radar, a camera or an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), the robotic sensor play is far from the Automated Driver Assistance System (ADAS) or the consumer AV play. The current search for performance and operability in the world of robotics is far greater than the focus on cost and durability that we usually see in the automotive world.
The whole sensor industry has been hypnotized by the autonomy ladder in automotive, and the 2020 $8.7B ADAS sensor market growing at 21% CAGR, as described in Yole’s “Sensing and Computing for ADAS Vehicle 2020” report, is a good reason for that. But adjacent and more disruptive sensor markets exist that might not see the typical tier one car part makers dominate so quickly. This is true in the robotic vehicle market. Goods transportation is the earliest opportunity, already representing a $1.3B market in 2026, growing to $7.4B in 2031 at a 60% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the next 10 years. The robotic sensor market for goods transportation could enable much larger transformations, in mobility, smart city design, and marketplace organization.
Sensors are a key stepping stone technology and specifically for goods transportation the demand for performance will be high without many of the safety-critical issues of human mobility. Therefore, the go-to market could appear in the short term
without many hurdles of other robotic initiatives.
Given that many of the needed technologies are already being used in ports and mines, unleashing robots on highways and much smaller ones for pizza deliveries does not seem a giant leap forward.
This report describes the context and ecosystem that will seize this major opportunity.

2020-2021’S CRISIS IS ACCELERATING THE NEED FOR ROBOTIC GOOD TRANSPORTATION

The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically disrupted supply chains in Q2 2020. In the early months of 2021, the world is now suffering major shortages across many product categories and overall logistics congestion. The complex supply chains, which are usually running between multiple continents in “just in time” operations appeared unprepared for such a global event. In this context e-commerce giants have benefited most. The efficiency of their supply chain gave them and the large classical retailers an edge,
mostly gaining from the smaller players. This is pushing large logistics efficiencies and the type of robotic automation that has become a key underlying technology used by e-commerce.
The crisis is accelerating a trend that was largely growing undetected. We are now reaching a level of technology maturity that will transform even every day logistics of consumer goods.
At the same time growing geopolitical frictions between the US and China have brought to light the vital role of trade routes. The Road and Belt Initiative from China is also a commercial battle.
The growing role of companies such as ZPMC, the giant port equipment manufacturer, is forcing the consolidation of European competitors such as Cargotec and Konecranes. In the middle of this competition for logistics dominance the role of technology is key. Port terminal Automated Guided Vehicles (AGV), their smaller counterparts called Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR) within warehouses and large automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (ASRS) are all becoming commodities. The logical next steps will be far more visible as robotic trucks will gradually invade US, Europe and Chinese Highways. Yole Développement forecast that 19,000 long haul robo-trucks should be on the road by 2026 and 200,000 by 2031. This represents a 90% CAGR in volume for the next decade but barely scratches 5% of road goods transportation.
Yet the implications of this robotic emergence will change everything.

Report's key features:

2018‒2031 Robotic goods transportation volume end-system production (in Munits)
2018‒2031 Robotic goods transportation end-system lifetime (in years)
2018‒2031 Robotic goods transportation volume end-system in operation (in Munits)
2018‒2031 Sensors content by application (in $M)
2018‒2031 Sensors for robotic goods transportation by application (in $M)
2018‒2031 Sensors for robotic goods transportation by application (in Munits)
2018‒2031 Sensors for robotic goods transportation by sensor type (in $M)

Objectives of the report:

To provide a scenario for sensors within the dynamics of the robotic goods transportation market

- Sensor system ASP forecast, revenue forecast, shipment volume forecast
- Application focus on the sensor suite: LiDAR, radar, cameras, IMU, GNSS, and computing
- Provide in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players.
- Who are the players and how does the robotic vehicle ecosystem relate to the automotive ecosystem?
- Who are the key suppliers to watch and which technology do they supply?

Sensor system ASP forecast, revenue forecast, shipment volume forecast
Application focus on the sensor suite: LiDAR, radar, cameras, IMU, GNSS, and computing
Provide in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players.
Who are the players and how does the robotic vehicle ecosystem relate to the automotive ecosystem?
Who are the key suppliers to watch and which technology do they supply?

Sensor system ASP forecast, revenue forecast, shipment volume forecast
Application focus on the sensor suite: LiDAR, radar, cameras, IMU, GNSS, and computing
Provide in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players.
Who are the players and how does the robotic vehicle ecosystem relate to the automotive ecosystem?
Who are the key suppliers to watch and which technology do they supply?

To provide key technical insights about and analyses of future technology trends and challenges.

- Key technology choices
- Technology dynamics
- Emerging technologies and roadmaps

Key technology choices
Technology dynamics
Emerging technologies and roadmaps

Key technology choices
Technology dynamics
Emerging technologies and roadmaps

Glossary 2

Table of contents 3

Report objectives 6

Report methodology and definitions 8

About the authors 9

Companies cited in this report 10

What we got right, what we got wrong 16

Executive summary 18

Introduction 30

Convergence leading to the robotic revolution
Logistics disruption is looming
Global technology roadmap
Logistics: the flow of goods
The Belt and Road Initiative
Robotic good transportation key drivers

Sensors for robotic goods transportation – Market forecast 63

Automotive market status
Robotic vehicle market trend
Robotic aircraft market trend
2018-2031 Robotic vehicle for goods transportation – production (in Units)
2018-2031 Robotic vehicle for goods transportation lifetime (in years)
2018-2031 Robotic vehicle for goods transportation in operation (in Mu)
2018-2031 Sensor content per robotic vehicle (in $ per vehicle)
2018-2031 Sensors for robotic goods transportation by application (in Mu)
2018-2031 Sensors for robotic goods transportation by application (in $M)
2018-2031 Sensors for robotic goods transportation by sensor type (in Mu)
2018-2031 Sensors for robotic goods transportation by sensor type (in $M)

Sensors for robotic good transportation ecosystem 58

End-system noteworthy news
Sensors noteworthy news
Robotic vehicle player ecosystem – Porter’s analysis
Robo-truck long haul – main player timeline
Robo-truck long haul – global fleet market breakdown
Last mile delivery robot – main player timeline
Last mile delivery robot curbside – global fleet market breakdown

Robotic good transportation market trend 74

Special vehicles: autonomous ships
Special vehicles: mining trucks AHS
Long haul robo-trucks
Last mile delivery robots
Delivery drones
Port terminal operations
Warehouse AMR and AGV

LiDAR technology trends 99

LiDAR capability

LiDARs for robotic goods transportation forecast

LiDAR ecosystem

LiDAR comparison chart

Innovative LiDAR products

Radar technology trends 123

Radar capability
Radars for robotic good transportation forecast
Radar technology roadmap
Innovative radar products

Camera technology trend 140

Camera capability
Cameras for robotic goods transportation forecast
Automotive vs robotic car cameras
Thermal IR camera shipment forecast
Innovative camera products

IMU technology trend 160

IMU for robotic goods transportation forecast

Gyroscope performance by technology

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