Market and Technology Trends
Solid-State Battery 2021
By Yole Intelligence —
Solid-state battery as an ultimate milestone in companies’ battery roadmaps.
- Update of companies’ plans concerning commercial introduction of solid-state battery
- Updated market forecast up to 2027
- Analysis of the perception of solid-state battery by investors and automotive companies, and how it has evolved in recent years
- Supply chain update
SOLID-STATE BATTERY IS ALL ABOUT WHAT IS BEHIND THE ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM INDUSTRY PLAYERS
Of course there is a lot of difficult technical work, but also some marketing and communication. In this report, Yole Développement (Yole) analysts provide an in-depth analysis of what has been achieved, what is still needed, and the positioning of solid-state battery against conventional Li-ion cells based on liquid / polymer-gel electrolyte.
Today, the leading market drivers for developing any battery are emission control regulations (especially for the automotive sector), which are driving the trends towards vehicle fleet electrification. Even with increased interest from customers in electric vehicles (EVs), there are still concerns regarding EVs short driving range, long charging time, and safety. To resolve these issues, industrial players have focused on solid-state batteries, aiming for a next generation battery with higher energy density, fast charging capability, lower cost, and greater safety. However, Li-ion batteries today have no significant problems and are good enough for most applications including EVs, consumer applications, etc. Therefore, companies are currently investing in solid-state batteries only as an alternative (secondary option) to conventional Li-ion batteries.
Different solid-state battery developers are targeting different applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs), consumer, aerospace, and open space applications. However, the most significant interest in solid-state batteries is for EV applications and thus from EV makers. In fact, EV makers are the most important actors for solid-state development and commercialization. Indeed, they provide $100M+ funding, require solid-state battery in order to differentiate from competitors, have high-volume battery requirements (a lot of battery cells per vehicle and a lot of vehicles per year) and boast established sales and distribution networks. Therefore, the overall solid-state battery supply chain is influenced by EV makers’ requirements. To develop solid-state battery technology, many EV makers such as Volkswagen, Hyundai, and BMW have made investments or partnerships with solid-state battery developers and are planning to launch their EVs with solid-state batteries (small production only) in the coming years (Fig1). For example, Volkswagen plans to launch its EV with solid-state batteries around 2025, forging a partnership with solid-state battery developer QuantumScape.
2025 WILL BE A DECISIVE YEAR FOR SOLID-STATE BATTERY COMMERCIALIZATION
Over the last few years we have seen a growing number of research activities in solid-state batteries. However, the development of solid-state battery is still nascent. Many solid-state battery developers are planning to commercialize their batteries by 2025, which will undoubtedly be an important milestone for electric vehicles. Based on the roadmaps of many EV makers, technology achievements, and supply chain collaborations as of Q1/2021, Yole Développement expects that commercial introduction of solid-state batteries will start in 2025, with mass production of solid-state-battery equipped vehicles starting around 2030. Solid-state battery demand will represent less than 2.5 GWh in 2027, a tiny volume compared to total Li-ion battery demand in 2027 (Fig2). Thus, no high-volume “switch” from conventional Li-ion to solid-state battery is expected. More than 99% of solid-state battery demand will be for EVs.
THE INDUSTRY’S VISION CONCERNING SOLID-STATE BATTERY’S BENEFITS HAS EVOLVED
Solid-state battery is considered an ultimate milestone in the technology roadmaps of battery and EV makers. A few years ago, such batteries were considered by many companies as a “holy grail” to target, one that could revolutionize the battery and electric vehicle industry (Fig3). Many EV makers have since bet on solid-state battery startups either because of their optimism in view of rapid achievement of commercial products or to ensure they do not miss the train in the growing battery competition.
The magic word “solid-state battery” has also provided entry to additional R&D funding from venture capital funds and public funds, thus reducing the amount of investment required from EV makers themselves. According to Yole’s analysis, the vision held for solid-state battery has evolved and is more pragmatic today. Solid-state battery is currently considered as just an additional step in the progressive step-by-step improvement of conventional Li-ion batteries. Indeed, most battery and EV makers are refocusing their efforts on shorter-term technology milestones such as nickel-rich cathode (NCM811), silicon-graphite anode, and cobalt-free cathode. Bringing solid-state technology to mass production is a difficult task and needs more time than was previously expected. It is clear now that partnerships are more important than ever to bring all the necessary solid-state battery know-how together: technology, equipment, highvolume / high-yield production, and end-systems. Partners with know-how in ceramic material and ceramic-based devices, and with experience in lithium-metal anode and electrode / electrolyte interfaces, may be immensely helpful in shortening the time needed to bring the solid-state battery to market.
Asahi Kasei, AdaVolt, Ampcera, Audi, Blue Solutions, BASF, Beijing Shenzhou Judain New Energy, BMW, BYD, Bolloré, Bosch, BrightVolt, CATL, CEA, Daimler, Dongshi Kingpower Science and Technology Ltd, Fujian Super Power New Energy Co., Ford, Fisker, GM Motors, GS Yuasa, Ganfeng Lithium, Hitachi Zosen, Hydro Québec, Honda, Hyundai, Idemitsu Kosan, Ilika, IMEC, Ionic Materials, Johnson Battery Technologies, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Kokam, Kalptree, Kuraray, KIA, LG Energy Solution, Leclanche, Lionano, Mitsubishi Motors, Manz, Mitsui Kinzoku, Murata, Maxell, NIO, Nissan, NGK Insulators, Nano One, Oxis, Prologium, Panasonic, Pathion, Prieto, PSA Group, Porsche, QuantumScape, Qing Tao, Energy Development Co., Renault, Saft, Samsung SDI, Sakti3, Siemens, SK Innovation, SES, Solid Power, Solvay, Solid State Battery Inc., Tesla, Toray, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Toray, Toshiba, Toyota, Umicore, Volkswagen, Vinfast, Volvo, WeLion New Energy Technology Co and more.
Key features of the report:
- 2020 - 2027 total Li-ion battery forecast in MWh
- 2020 - 2027 solid-state battery forecast in MWh, split by application
- In-depth analysis of technology challenges and different approaches for bringing solid-state battery technology to market
- Overview of the main companies involved in solid-state battery development
- Analysis of what is needed for successful solid-state battery market entry
Objectives of the report:
- Offer in-depth insight into the key drivers and value propositions of solid-state battery technologies, and comparisons with conventional Li-ion batteries
- Provide an analysis of the remaining challenges in bringing solid-state batteries to commercialization, with a dedicated focus on different applications
- Present the main potential applications for solid-state batteries and the value proposition of solid-state batteries in these applications
- Furnish a market forecast for solid-state batteries
- Analyze different approaches for solid-state battery commercialization
- Deliver an overview of different solid-state electrolyte materials and manufacturing methods for solid-state battery cells
- Identify the main trends in the solid-state battery supply chain. Provide a detailed analysis of the supply chain, including main R&D and industrial players, partnerships, and business approaches. Additional focus is given to companies that are using their know-how (in ceramic materials, etc.) to diversify their business towards solid-state batteries
Table of contents 3
Three-page summary 15
Executive summary 19
Application trends 67
Market forecast 102
Solid-state battery supply chain 107
Key companies’ solid-state battery roadmaps 134
Why solid-state battery? 154
What does solid-state battery compete with? – conventional Li-ion battery 157
Solid-state battery as an alternative to conventional Li-ion batteries 175
How to make solid-state battery marketready 185
Main solid-state battery challenges 203
Solid-state battery electrolyte materials 222
Solid-state electrode/electrolyte interface (SEI) 236
Manufacturing techniques 242
Covid-19 impact on solid-state battery development 258
Appendix – Company profiles (23 companies) 265