ASML returns to normal growth trajectory: Yole Group insights
ASML has just released its Q3 sales and financial figures, showing a significant drop in expected sales for 2025, a mix of high-end EUV machinery indispensable for advanced semiconductor production and ArF immersion enabling China’s chipmakers to stay in the semiconductor race. From Yole Group’s perspective, this decline can be explained by a few key factors.
Check out today’s Yole Group chronicle, featuring insights from a dedicated series of semiconductor manufacturing equipment analyses, including the newly released Status of the Wafer Fab Equipment Industry annual report. With years of expertise in the semiconductor sector, Yole Group provides an in-depth understanding of industry trends and the influence of the latest innovations. Every quarter, their analysts release the Wafer Fab Equipment Market Monitor, offering up-to-date tracking of key players and their strategies.
Grab your morning coffee and enjoy Yole Group’s latest snapshot!
The Chinese market for lithography equipment has been exceptionally strong over the last four years, growing from 39% of ASML’s 2020 sales to about 50% in 2024. However, in 2025, it is expected to return to a more typical level of around 30% of ASML’s annual sales, which aligns with historical trends. This shift is due to Chinese semiconductor companies reaching their limits to absorb production equipment. The pace of implementing production capabilities—achieving the right processes, employing skilled workers, and ensuring good yields—along with finding customers for their devices, has not kept up with the rate of equipment purchases. This doesn’t even factor in the potential impact of U.S. trade restrictions, which could further limit equipment acquisitions.
Meanwhile, Intel and Samsung are attempting to catch up with TSMC in developing advanced nodes. However, their progress has been slower than anticipated, delaying their investments in leading-edge equipment. Both companies are waiting to establish viable production processes before committing to further equipment acquisitions.
John West
Chief Analyst, Semiconductor Equipment at Yole Group
In summary, ASML is simply returning to a more normal growth trajectory. While the growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 remains positive, it is expected to be moderate rather than explosive. All this was already reflected in Yole Group’s forecasts, which we have published in the Yole Group Wafer Fab Equipment Quarterly Monitor, as well as the new report, Status of the Wafer Fab Equipment Industry report.
Indeed, some questions are emerging around the future strength of the Chinese consumer market and the automotive sector, which is facing challenges in the U.S. and Europe. Additionally, demand for semiconductors is returning to more typical levels after a period of extraordinary growth in various sectors. Generative AI has been “the forest that can’t hide the trees” over the last 18 months, driving significant attention and investment, especially in the manufacturing of advanced nodes. However, other underlying market dynamics are starting to resurface.
Yole Group tracks all segments of the semiconductor equipment market, from front-end to back-end, including systems and subsystems, test equipment, and consumables. This comprehensive coverage makes us unique in the industry. Please feel free to contact us for further discussions.
About the author
John West is Chief Analyst, Semiconductor Equipment at Yole Group. He has over 20 years of industry experience and a successful track record in various strategy and consulting projects.
John has a Bachelor’s degree in Medical Physics from King’s College London and an MBA from Cranfield School of Management.
This article has been developed in collaboration with Taguhi Yeghoyan, Senior Technology & Market Analyst, Semiconductor Equipment at Yole Group.
John West Chief Analyst, Semiconductor Equipment at Yole GroupIn summary, ASML is simply returning to a more normal growth trajectory. While the growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 remains positive, it is expected to be moderate rather than explosive. All this was already reflected in Yole Group’s forecasts, which we have published in the Yole Group Wafer Fab Equipment Quarterly Monitor, as well as the new report, Status of the Wafer Fab Equipment Industry report.
