Quantum computing: the next frontier or the next bubble?

Written by  Alain Bismuth, Andrew Bright, and George Jones, for Woodside Capital Partners

It’s a line industry insiders repeat with equal parts irony and exhaustion. Yet 2025 feels different. For the first time, the money, momentum, and breakthroughs suggest the quantum era may finally be tipping from theory to industry. McKinsey’s Quantum Technology Monitor 2025 projects that the total quantum-technology market could approach $100 billion by 2035 and approximately $200 billion by 2040. Yole Group predicts that the total quantum hardware market will grow from $954 million in 2024 to $17.4 billion by 2035. Japan has even labeled 2025 the “first year of quantum industrialization,” and China’s public spending commitments exceed $15B, underscoring the geopolitical stakes around secure communications, advanced materials, and the next generation of AI.

Quantum technology now rests on three pillars:
•    Quantum computing: the headline act
•    Quantum communication: secure transfer of information at scale
•    Quantum sensing: ultra-precise measurement for navigation, healthcare, and defense

McKinsey estimates that these pillars combined could reach about $97 billion by 2035 and approximately $198 billion by 2040. The momentum is evident in concrete data: startup investments grew around 50% year-over-year to $2.0 billion in 2024, and revenues for quantum computing companies are estimated at $650–$750 million in 2024, with projections to exceed $1 billion in 2025. Japan’s public commitments, totaling around $7.4 billion announced in early 2025, highlight how national programs are reshaping the landscape.

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Source: www.woodsidecap.com