Three misconceptions about the $402B semiconductor foundry industry

The global semiconductor foundry industry has reached an estimated $402 billion in 2026, reflecting both the scale and the structural complexity of modern semiconductor manufacturing, according to Yole Group’s latest report, “Status of the Semiconductor Foundry Industry 2026.” Foundries now sit at the crossroads of geopolitics and the AI capex boom, but do we really understand what they are about?

It is widely cited that TSMC holds about 72% share of the global semiconductor foundry market and more than 90% of advanced chips. Such statements and figures only partially reflect TSMC’s true position. Its dominance at the leading edge is often understated due to inconsistent definitions of “advanced.” Depending on the source, this term may refer to nodes below 20 nm, aligned with U.S. export controls; below 10 nm, including non-planar technologies, which is the Yole Group definition; or below 5 nm, excluding China’s 7-nm capabilities and comparing TSMC with Intel and Samsung only.

A more meaningful approach is to focus on the leading edge, currently the 3-nm class in high-volume manufacturing, where TSMC holds an estimated ~95% market share. Samsung has not consistently matched TSMC’s performance at this node and primarily supplies 7-nm and 5-nm wafers to third parties seeking advanced nodes. Intel’s 18A node, also positioned within the 3-nm class, is only beginning to ramp and remains largely dedicated to internal products. The upcoming transition to the 2-nm class will be a key inflection point. Samsung’s early deployment for its internal smartphone division suggests potential shifts, but it remains to be seen whether TSMC’s ~95% share of the leading-edge market will materially change in the future.

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Source: www.eetimes.com