Market and Technology Trends
6’’ and Below: Small-Dimension Wafer Market Trends 2020
By Yole Intelligence —
Wafer fabs never die: small-dimension wafer is still a growing market.
- Glossary 4
- Definition 5
- Metrics 6
- Report objectives 7
- Scope of the report 8
- Methodology & definitions 12
- About the authors 13
- Companies cited in this report 14
- Why this report? 15
- Three-page summary 16
- Executive summary 20
- Market trends 43
- Semiconductor devices at one glance
- Semiconductor devices categories
- Applications vs diameters
- Applications vs materials
- Applications vs diameters & materials
- Wafer price trends
- ASP of epi-ready wafers
- Wafer pricing analysis
- Wafer reclaim
- Wafer diameter trends
- Wafer diameter evolution
- Major Si manufacturers
- Major gallium arsenide manufacturers
- Major silicon carbide manufacturers
- Major gallium nitride manufacturers
- Major LT/LN manufacturers
- Major indium phosphide manufacturers
- Major sapphire manufacturers
- Wafer diameter drivers
- Wafer diameter drivers
- Limitations for diameter evolution
- Overcoming limitations
- Technology trends 77
- Freestanding substrates used by semiconductor industry
- Substrate types and their applications
- Key drivers for small size applications
- From devices to wafer materials
- RF components
- Power components
- Laser diodes
- LEDs
- MEMS & sensors
- From device to wafer materials
- Growth methods
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- Bulk single-crystal growth
- Growth techniques
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- Benchmarking
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- Growth methods
- Physical properties
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- Business model & supply chain 101
- Business model
- Supply chain
- Producers and distributors
- Reclaim wafers
- Merger & Acquisitions, partnerships, licensing
- Fabs & equipment : 1’’ – 6’’ processable
- Fabs
- Equipment
- Focus on China
- Focus on Russia
- Business model
- Market forecasts 134
- Overall wafer forecast
- By diameter
- By application
- By wafer material
- Observations and analysis
- Conclusions 161
- Outlook 165
- Yole Développement presentation 170
Materials, applications, and market size
The small-wafer (1’’ – 6’’) market is anything but “dead”, with a 2019 – 2025 CAGR of + 1.8% and estimated revenues of $5.4B in 2025. More than Moore (MtM) applications represent the overwhelming part of this market, and as such it is still very dynamic. In fact, non-Si wafer markets (sapphire) exhibit moderate to strong (eg. 19.5% for SiC, with revenues estimated at $712M in 2025) CAGRs over the 2019 – 2025 period. Only Si exhibits a moderate negative CAGR (-3.3%) over the same period for sub-6’’ Si wafers, due mostly to power and RF applications increasingly transitioning to 8’’ and even 12’’.
This sub-6’’ market strength can be linked to 1) a “good enough” device performance/fabrication cost-per-die ratio so that large CAPEX and risky process changes cannot always be fully justified. This “good enough” concept is important and is a strong driver in the use of small-dimension wafers. 2) There are strong drivers for materials such as power for SiC and datacom for InP. The case of sapphire is particularly interesting, and the competitive landscape has changed tremendously after a price collapse, with only a handful of players serving a high-volume yet saturated LED market. However, the microLED market could significantly increase demand by 2023, especially in the 6’’ range. MicroLEDs could also propel the GaAs wafer market, particularly for red pixels – but unlike sapphire, GaAs does not solely rely on the LED market. Indeed, there is a strong forecasted demand for 3D sensing applications, causing GaAs to grow with a CAGR of no less than 8% 2019 – 2025. Overall, new applications and needs are driving evolutions in wafer diameters, by material and by application.
Material suppliers and market dynamics
Wafer material (ingots and/or wafers) market players tend to be specialized and concentrated on one or two material types. This is especially the case for SiC, sapphire, GaAs, and InP. Interestingly, large Si players (by volume) such as SK siltron have started moving to the SiC market, and we could soon see more such moves. SiC is strongly emerging in the small wafer-size markets – indeed, large financial investments (especially from the power electronics industry) are driving SiC to the 6’’ and even 8’’ diameter range, with new dedicated 8’’ SiC fabs being built. This scaling-up is driven mostly by the need to further reduce wafer cost per square inch, which is still substantially higher for SiC than “traditional” Si wafers. Similarly, GaAs and InP are also limited by the material cost itself. Even though the transitions from 2’’ to 3’’ (InP) and 4’’ to 6’’ (GaAs) are already underway, strong volumes remain on 2’’ (InP) and 4’’ (GaAs) for datacom and 3D sensing applications, respectively.
LT/LN wafers remain firmly anchored to the 5’’ – 6’’ wafer diameter for RF applications, with significant volumes attached. However, the GaN/Si combined with the Piezoelectric on Insulators (POI) approach often requires the use of 5’’ and 6’’ Si wafers in large volumes, and they have started gaining market share in the RF segment. In parallel, some wafer suppliers are increasingly proposing reclaim service in the well-established 8’’ and 12’’ Si wafer segments. Reclaim service is also growing in the 4’’- 6’’ range with the wider use of non-Si wafers (excluding sapphire), which are in general much more expensive than traditional Si wafers.
Interestingly, in a saturated sapphire wafer market, some players are looking for other business opportunities. For example, Hansel Technics (Korea) has started offering 8’’ and 12’’ Si reclaim wafers. However, there is no financial incentive to reclaim sub-8’’ Si and sapphire wafers. Incidentally, the sapphire market has become significantly concentrated around a few players such as Monocrystal (Russia).
Refurbished equipment market: “new” versus “depreciated” fabs
In parallel to mainstream semiconductor equipment there exists a vibrant refurbished equipment & maintenance market. This is significant and connected to the “fabs never die” trend. Less known is the existence of a market for depreciated fabs, which also represent tremendous opportunities to produce devices at low cost for any volume. For example, there is still significant demand for 6’’ Si wafers in standard power IGBT and MOSFET devices. Higher-end devices can then be fabricated in brand-new fabs (e.g. Bosch and Infineon in the power electronics industry, in the Si 300 mm range) which is also a way to secure future supplies and assert one’s dominance in the market.
A similar trend is at play in the SiC wafer manufacturing industry, with some major players moving quickly to 8’’ wafer diameter and securing their supply chain while leaving behind 6’’ (and even more so 4’’) wafer processing capacities. With the increased use of non-Si substrates, more and more players are offering specific processing equipment for a given material and/or are proposing equipment which can adapt to different materials and diameters, including 4’’ and 6’’. This equipment can be astutely used in fully depreciated sub-6’’ Si wafer fabs, creating opportunities for players small and large to offer a highly competitive device fabrication cost. Therefore, wafer fabs never die.
II-VI Advanced Materials, Applied Materials, Atecom Technology, ATREG, Ceramic Forum, CMK, Cree-Wolfspeed, Crystaland, Cyberstar, ELMA, Freiberger, Global Wafers, Harbin Aurora, III-V Reclaim, Iljin Display, Infineon, InPact, Monocrystal, Okmetic, Optim Wafer Services, Power Advanced Materials, PSI, Pure Wafer, ROHM – SiCrystal, Saint-Gobain LUMILOG, Shin-Etsu, Showa Denko, Siltronic, Sil’Tronix ST, Si-Mat, SK siltron, SOITEC, STMicroelectronics, SUMCO, Sumitomo , TDG, University Wafer, Vital Materials, Wafer Export, Wafer World.
Key features of the report
- Comprehensive analysis of the small-dimension wafer market by material, application, and diameter
- Description of the key benefits, added value, and drivers for using small-dimension wafers in the semiconductor industry
- The emerging wafer reclaim industry
- 2019 - 2025 small-wafer market forecasts: breakdown by material, application, and wafer diameter
- Summary of key players by wafer material, and discussion of the global supply chain
- Focus on China and Russia
Objectives of the report
- Assess the wafer market (up to 6-inch) for More than Moore (MtM) devices
- Submit a wafer-starts analysis and metrics by MtM application segment and split by wafer size and material (2019 - 2025)
- Define the key drivers for using small wafer sizes
- Describe the ecosystem and positioning of key players in the sub-6’’ wafer diameter market