LiDAR for Automotive 2024

• Glossary
• Table of contents
• Objectives of the report
• Scope of the report
• Methodologies & definition
• Global Semiconductor activity
• Companies cited
• What we got right, what we got wrong
• 3-page summary
• Executive summary
• Context
• Market forecasts
  • PC&LCV market
  • Robotaxi market
• Market trends
  • Automotive applications
• Market shares and supply chain
  • Ecosystem
  • Market shares
  • M&A and investments
  • Partnerships and supply chain
  • Chinese landscape
  • Conclusion
• Technology trends
  • Devices
  • Products
  • Integration in passenger cars
  • Computing
  • FMCW LiDARs
  • Technology roadmaps
• Technology, Process, and Cost Report
• Conclusion
• About Yole Group

China: the driving force behind the LiDAR revolution

The global LiDAR market for automotive is expected to grow from $538M in 2023 to $3,632M in 2029, growing at a 38% CAGR between 2023 and 2029. While in 2022 we were at crossroads between the PC & LCV market and the robotaxi market, in 2023, the PC & LCV market is now clearly dominating the market. The first robotaxi services were put in place in August 2016 with NuTonomy in Singapore, and a first step was reached in 2017 with the entry of Waymo and Cruise, which started in Phoenix, AZ, and San Francisco, CA. After that, we saw the entry of Chinese players such as DiDi, AutoX, and Baidu. All these players opened new services in various cities worldwide, pulling the LiDAR market for robotaxis far ahead of the LiDAR market for passenger cars. But in 2023 and 2024, following a series of incidents, Waymo and Cruise clearly slowed down their activities. This had a direct impact on the robotaxi market. It could also impact the longer-term market as companies need to re-gain trust of the population. In 2023, the robotaxi market was $124M while the PC & LCV market was at $414M. The passenger car market was more than three times larger than the robotaxi market witnessing a real take-off. Since 2018, we have now monitored almost 200 design wins. 124 of them are schedule for 2024 or later and almost 90% of them are from Chinese OEMs. Chinese OEMs are clearly pushing for the integration of LiDAR in their vehicle. While EU or US OEMs limit LiDAR to the F segment, Chinese OEMs are releasing cars in the D segment. In 2023, the first car from the C-segment has been monitored. These cars are much more affordable than those in the F segment, and a much higher volume of cars and, therefore, LiDAR will be produced. This led to a very strong price reduction of LiDARs.

RoboSense and Hesai are now clear leaders

The automotive LiDAR (PC&LCV and robotaxi) ecosystem is still quite large, with 44 companies monitored. Some are already in mass production, while others have a low LiDAR activity or are still in the R&D phase and working on the next generations of LiDAR. Regarding the robotaxi market, few players are generating significant revenue. Hesai controls the market with 73% of the market share as their LiDAR can be found in most robotaxis, such as Cruise, Aurora, Apollo, DiDi, Pony.ai, and AutoX. In the PC&LCV market, things are evolving rapidly and changed again compared to last year. As Seyond (formerly Innovusion) are only partnering with Nio, they have been surpassed by RoboSense and Hesai. Seyond are now ranked in third position. In 2023, RoboSense and Hesai dominated the market, as close to 460,000 of their LiDARs could be found on the roads. This represents more than 60% of the total LiDAR volume in 2023. In 2024, Hesai and RoboSense are expected to continue leading the LiDAR market for passenger cars, taking the first two places. A big win for these players would be to have design wins with global OEMs, that would show the robustness of their technology.

High volumes and improved technology to lower the ASP

In terms of technology, among the four categories we are following, only one is expected to remain roughly the same over the next ten years. In the three others, we could see significant evolutions regarding the imaging technology, the type of emitter, and the kind of photodetector used. The wavelength is the only thing to remain stable. In 2024, near-infrared (NIR) wavelength (905 / 940nm) is expected to represent 90% of LiDAR volume for passenger cars. In the next ten years, the ratio between NIR and short-wave infrared (SWIR) is expected to remain similar. Regarding the imaging technology, hybrid solid-state LiDAR based on a rotating mirror dominates with 66% of volumes expected in 2024, followed by MEMS-based LiDAR with 32%. In the next ten years, the share of LiDAR based on a rotating mirror should still be 52% by volume. MEMS share is expected to decrease to 6%, but the main difference could be the emergence of flash LiDAR which could take 37% of the volume in the next ten years. This change is linked to a change in the light emitter and the photodetector. Indeed, VCSEL arrays based on multi-junction layers are improving rapidly, and, combined with SiPMs or SPADs, they will be able to offer a fully solid-state LiDAR with no moving parts. LiDAR manufacturers are now using higher volume and new technologies to decrease the cost of their LiDAR. In 2023, LiDARs could be found at a price below $500 in China. We also hear more and more about FMCW LiDARs, in competition with dTOF LiDARs. FMCW LiDARs are only emerging, and manufacturers are targeting niche applications at the moment such as metrology, or defense. These are application in which the price is not so much a barrier for the customer. In automotive, FMCW LiDARs are not expected before 2027 / 2028. The supply needs to be built and stabilized and many challenges related to computing, thermal management or integration need to be solved.

Aeva, AEye, AGC, amf, ams OSRAM, Analog Photonics, Aptiv, Arcfox, Audi, Aurora Innovation, Baraja, Beijing Morelite Semiconductor, Beijing Surestar Technology, Blickfeld, BMW, Bosch, Broadcom, Celestica, Cepton Technologies, Coherent, Continental, Denso, Eckhardt Optics, Excelitas Technologies, Fabrinet, Guangshao Technology, Hamamatsu Photonics, Harman, Hesai Photonics Technologies, Hexagon AB, Hirain, Hitronics Technologies, Huawei, Hypersen Technologies, Hyundai, Hyundai Mobis, IM Motors, Infineon Technologies AG, Innoviz Technologies, Iridian Spectral Technologies, Jabil, Jaguar, Koito, Kyocera, Laser Components, LeddarTech, LeiShen Intelligent System, Leonardo, Lexus, Li Auto, Lidwave, Livox, Lumentum, Lumibird, Luminar Technologies, Lumotive, Magna, Marelli, Meller Optics, Mercedes-Benz, Micro Photon Devices, MicroVision, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, Mobileye, Nextcore, Nikon, Nio, OEwaves, Ommatidia LiDAR, ON Semiconductor, Ophir, Oplatek, OQqmented, Ouster, Panasonic, Preciseley Microtechnology, PSSI, Quantel Laser, Quantum Semiconductor International (QSI), Renesas, RoboSense, Sanmina, Scantinel Photonics, Seminex, Seyond (formerly Innovusion), SiLC Technologies, Skywater, Steerlight, STMicroelectronics, Teraxion, Thorlabs, TSMC, Valeo, Volvo, Voyant Photonics, Waymo, Webasto, XFAB, XenomatiX, Xpeng, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, and more…

Key features:

• 2019-2029 Global LiDAR forecast (Munits, $M)
• 2019-2034 LiDAR forecast for passenger cars (Munits, $M)
• Splits by range, wavelength, ranging technology, imaging technology, emitter type, photodetector type.
• Market trends in automotive autonomy
• Overview of the LiDAR technology related to laser and photodetector.
• Deep insight into FMCW technology.

Report’s objectives

Present an overview of LiDAR for automotive applications

• LiDAR penetration and dynamics in automotive applications
• The technologies used, and the ongoing evolutions
• LiDAR hardware – volume forecast, ASP forecast, revenue forecast with technology breakdown, and application breakdown

Provide a scenario for LiDAR dynamics in automotive applications within the dynamics of the autonomous automotive market

• Hardware for LiDAR – revenue forecast, volume forecast
• Impact of autonomous driving on the LiDAR market

Deliver an in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players

• The leading players. The relationships in this ecosystem
• The key suppliers to watch, and what technologies they provide?

Offer key technical insights and analyses into future technology trends and challenges

• Key technology choices
• Technology dynamics
• Emerging technologies and roadmaps
  
  

What’s new?

Deep insight into FMCW technology.