Next-Generation DRAM 2024 - Focus on HBM and 3D DRAM

Glossary and definitions

Report objectives

Scope of the report

Methodology & definitions

About the authors

Companies cited in this report

3-page summary

Executive summary

DRAM market forecast

Revenue, bit shipments, ASP, capex, wafers (incl. CBA), and more

HBM market forecast

Monolithic 3D DRAM long-term forecast              

Introduction                             

• Memory market overview
• Brief history of DRAM technology
• DRAM business – a historical overview

Market drivers and trends

DRAM technology trends

• DRAM scaling: challenges and solutions
• Technologies and roadmaps by players

High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)

Monolithic 3D DRAM

• R&D activities towards 3D DRAM
• IP landscape

Processing in memory – overview

Leading-edge DRAM manufacturing

• DRAM fabs and wafer production by players
• Equipment and materials for DRAM manufacturing

Advanced packaging for DRAM

• 3D stacking – focus on hybrid bonding
• DRAM-logic heterogenous integration

Players and market shares

• List of mergers acquisitions and noteworthy news

Memory business in China – focus on DRAM

Conclusions

About Yole Group

Yole Group Corporate presentation

Spring has finally sprung in the DRAM business! Generative AI and HBM will fuel the market growth.

During the memory market “winter,” demand for DRAM bits remained weak except for some specific applications such as AI servers and automotive electronics. In particular, the rise of generative AI applications from late 2022 (e.g., ChatGPT) boosted demand for high-speed memory technologies – namely DDR5 DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) – in the data center market. ​

To take advantage of the new generative-AI wave and speed up the market recovery, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron started diverting more of their wafer capacity to address HBM opportunities, leading to an overall bit production slowdown* and accelerating the shift to undersupply for non-HBM products. The overall HBM wafer production is expected to grow more than 100% YoY in 2024, reaching ~150 kwpm. ​

Driven by strong demand for AI computing, HBM will largely outgrow the overall DRAM market. After impressive bit-shipment growth in 2023 (+93% YoY), HBM bits are expected to continue growing vigorously in 2024 (+147% YoY) and throughout the next five years (~45% CAGR23-29); by comparison, data center DRAM bits will have a ~25% CAGR23-29. In terms of revenue, the HBM market has the potential to grow from ~$2.7B in 2022 to ~$14B in 2024, corresponding to ~3% and ~19%, respectively, of the overall DRAM revenue. ​

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4F2 cell designs, hybrid bonding and monolithic 3D DRAM will enable long-term DRAM scaling

4F2 DRAM is currently being developed to reduce chip area by approximately 30% compared to existing 6F2 structures without the need to use smaller lithography nodes. In addition, CMOS-Bonded Array (CBA) DRAM architectures – where the periphery circuit and the memory array are processed on different wafers and then stacked together with wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding – will be adopted upon introduction of 4F2 cells from ~2027. ​

Hybrid bonding will also be needed for HBM to continue improving memory bandwidth and power efficiency, as well as to minimize HBM stack thickness. We expect that the adoption of hybrid bonding will begin with the HBM4 generation (~2026), which will feature 16 DRAM dies per stack, a 2× increase in interface width up to 2,048 bits. ​

Although currently still finding its way, monolithic 3D DRAM is the foremost long-term scaling solution. Many critical aspects of 3D-DRAM development are as yet unknown, and the way-to-go strategy has not yet been defined. Based on technical papers and patent filings, DRAM companies are exploring many possible pathways to implement monolithic 3D-DRAM, among which are 1T-1C cells with horizontal capacitors, and capacitor-less options, such as gain cells (2T0C) or 1T-DRAM (e.g., based on the floating-body effect). The 2D-to-3D DRAM transition will trigger significant transformations in the DRAM industry that could essentially mimic the history of 3D NAND. Our current market model assumes that 3D DRAM will hit the market in ~2030 and will take about five years to reach ~10 mwpy (38% of the forecasted DRAM wafer production in 2035). ​

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The fight for leadership in HBM is set to escalate. In the long term, the shift to 3D will open new opportunities for China.

Since 2013, SK hynix has been a pioneer in the development and commercialization of HBM and currently leads the HBM market with ~55% revenue share, followed by Samsung with ~41%. Micron was noticeably absent from HBM until 2020. As a late entrant to the HBM business, this American company needs to reduce the time to market, and for this purpose, they will skip the HBM3 generation and introduce directly HBM3E products (aka HBM3 Gen 2). ​

Advanced packaging techniques for DRAM-logic integration and DRAM scaling alternatives to conventional lithography shrinks will be the focus of intense R&D activity by Chinese companies in the coming years. These pathways are currently open –  there are no major roadblocks due to commercial restrictions at this stage – and China will follow them to develop high-performance AI chips without making use of restricted leading-edge equipment.* By leveraging More-than-Moore solutions that combine logic and memory, China will remain in the race for technology supremacy in various fields, among which is the critical sector of AI computing. ​

*Note: 3D DRAM will use “relaxed” lithography nodes (e.g., 20nm) and will not require EUV lithographic systems. We expect that more than 70% of the equipment spend on 3D DRAM manufacturing could be focused on deposition and etching systems.​

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ACM Research, Adata, Advantest, Alibaba DAMO Academy, Alliance Memory, Alphabet, AMEC, AP Memory, Apacer, Apple, Applied Materials, ASE, ASML, Avalanche, BeSang, Buffalo, Canon, Changxin Xinqiao, CXMT, Cisco, Dell, Dosilicon, Etron, ESMT, Everspin, Ferroelectric Memory Company, Fujitsu, GigaDevice, GlobalFoundries, HHGrace, Hikstor, Hitachi, HLMC, HP, Huawei, IBM, ICLeague, IMEC, IMECAS, Infineon, Innostar, Intel, ISSI, Jasminer, JHICC, Kingston, KLA, Lam Research, Lenovo, Longsys, Liteon, Macronix, Materion, Micron, MonolithIC 3D, Montage Technology, Nano Labs, Nantero, Nanya, Naura, Neo Semiconductor, Nikon, Nuvoton, NXP, Onsemi, Powerchip, Powertech, ProMOS Technologies, Qualcomm, Rambus, Reliance, Realtek, Renesas, Rohm, Samsung, SanDisk, Seagate, Semtech, Silicon Motion, SK hynix, SK Materials, Smart Modular Technologies, SMEE, SMIC, Sony, SPIL, SST, Spin Memory, STMicroelectronics, STEC, SunLune, Sunrise, Texas Instruments, Tokyo Electron, Toshiba, TowerJazz, TPSCo, Transcend, Tsinghua Unigroup, TSMC, UMC, UniIC Semiconductors, Unimos Microelectronics, Unisantis Electronics, Viking, Violin Memory, Winbond, XFab, XMC, YMTC, and more.

Key Features 

• Overview of the semiconductor memory market with focus on DRAM.
• Description of key technology trends and R&D activities by suppliers, such as CBA and 4F2 DRAM, monolithic 3D DRAM, processing-in-memory (PiM) and HBM.
• Market forecast for DRAM in terms of wafer production, bit shipments, bit demand, capex and more.
• Analysis of ongoing and future DRAM technology transitions, such as DDR4-to-DDR5, monolithic 3D DRAM, HBM with hybrid bonding, etc.
• Technology roadmaps by DRAM suppliers and detailed analysis the competitive landscape with focus on China.
• Description of the DRAM ecosystem and analysis of the WFE and material for DRAM manufacturing.

Product objectives : 

Yole is pleased to provide you with the brand-new report “Next-Generation DRAM 2024 – Focus on HBM and 3D DRAM”, which provides a detailed analysis of the DRAM market and technology trends with focus on DRAM scaling, high-bandwidth memory and monolithic 3D DRAM. The main objectives of this report are as follows:

•  Provide a comprehensive analysis of the DRAM market
  • Description of the memory market outlining the DRAM market cyclicality throughout history (from the early 1980s to the present).
  • DRAM business overview with market forecasts in terms of revenues, bit shipments, bit demand and average selling prices.
  • DRAM supply analysis with capex and wafer production forecast with details on the adoption of CBA* DRAM architectures.
  • High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) business: market drivers, players dynamics, bit shipments, wafer production, and more.
  • Long-term monolithic 3D DRAM market evolution (2030-2035) and impact of the 2D-to-3D transition on the DRAM equipment business.
• Present the latest DRAM technology trends
  • Technology roadmaps by DRAM suppliers for next-generation DRAM devices, such as DDR5 and HBM.
  • Technical solutions for DRAM scaling in terms of equipment (including EUV lithography), novel cell structures and materials.
  • Advanced packaging for memory: technical trends and roadmaps for high-performance DRAM devices.
  • Adoption of hybrid bonding for CBA* DRAM, HBM, as well as for emerging AI devices based on logic-DRAM stacks.
  • Emerging technologies, such as monolithic 3D DRAM and processing-in-memory (PiM)
• Describe the supply chain and the DRAM ecosystem
  • DRAM supply chain with focus on wafer-fab equipment and material suppliers.
  • China DRAM business with analysis of the main technology developments by Chinese players.