Market and Technology Trends

Radar for Automotive 2023

By Yole Intelligence — Apr 2023

Total automotive radar market expected to reach $13.6B in 2028 with a CAGR22-28 of 12%, driven by new safety regulations and imaging radar innovations.

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Key Features

Forecast for radar platform by type (legacy, 4D, Imaging, in-cabin), operating frequency, and mounting position
Forecast for radar antenna and computing type
Forecast for radar silicon IC by chipset function (RFIC, processor, Networking, PMIC), operating frequency and technology platform (GaAs, SiGe, CMOS, FDSOI)
Forecast for RFIC transceiver wafer start
Market shares of OEM, Tier1 and Tier2
Market trends in automotive radar
Overview of the automotive radar supply chain
Deep insight into automotive radar manufacturers, products and technology

What’s new?

Radar centralization market trend and forecast
Radar antenna technology market trend and forecast
Extensive analysis and forecast of radar ASP and sensor BoM for ADAS/AD

Product objectives

Yole has combined its long expertise in semiconductor and its deep knowledge of radar technologies and market to deliver this new edition of the “Radar for Automotive” report, which has the following main objectives:

Provide market metrics and forecasts for automotive radar:
- Forecast for radar platform by type (legacy, 4D, Imaging, in-cabin), operating frequency, and mounting position.
- Forecast for radar antenna and computing type.
- Forecast for radar silicon IC by chipset function (RFIC, processor, Networking, PMIC), operating frequency and technology platform for the RFIC (GaAs, SiGe, CMOS, FDSOI).
- Forecast for RFIC transceiver wafer start.
Analyze the drivers and challenges for automotive radar adoption:
- Market trends for legacy, 4D, imaging and in-cabin radar.
Present main technological trends and ongoing developments on automotive radar with a focus on imaging radar and vehicles centralized architecture:
- Technical characteristics evolution including FOV, angular resolution, output power, phase noise, noise figure and power consumption of exterior and in-cabin radars.
- ASP analysis of automotive radars and their integration in cars.
- Technological trends of radar antenna technology and vehicle centralization architecture.
- Assessment of the interference issue.
Oversee the main players across the automotive radar supply chain:
- Overview of the automotive radar ecosystem. Key players by technology, application and location.
- Detailed Market Shares analysis of OEM, Tier1 and Tier2.
Analyze how the business models and supply-chains are evolving:
- Recent acquisitions and funding. Latest company news.

Radar is beginning the next market growth wave

OEMs are ramping up the equipment rate for radar in their cars. Multiple developments are happening or are expected to happen. This includes a switch from 24 GHz to 77 GHz, a move from legacy radar without elevation capability, and a limited tracked object list to 4D radar as a baseline and imaging radar in premium cases. There is also a trend toward centralizing radar computing and transitioning from planar PCB antennas to 3D waveguides.

Overall, the exterior radar market was $6.7B in 2022 and is poised to grow to $12.9B by 2028.

Besides exterior radar sensors for driving assistance, our car interiors are becoming more monitored. The first implementation was a driver monitoring system to ensure the driver focused on the road ahead. A car occupant monitoring system is a natural extension for passenger safety, starting with Child Presence Detection, though it also finds application in improving the user experience. Next on the list will be object monitoring, such as the position of a seat or headrest.

A CPD system has become a request in multiple markets since 2022/2023 (ASEAN NCAP, Euro NCAP), though the system itself is not regulated. In most cases, an indirect method is used (door opening cycle tracking & driver alerts). However, from 2025, a direct sensing method will be mandated in Euro NCAP, which is likely to change the market dynamics for in-cabin monitoring.

Radar is particularly well suited for this task as it can detect a child in a turned-back baby seat. It can also be used in vital sign monitoring.

We estimate the market opportunity at $600M by 2028 and market uptake to begin in 2025.

Historical leaders far ahead, but startups and newcomers are pushing

In 2022, six major players still dominated the $6.7B market: Continental, Aptiv, Bosch, Hella (now Forvia), Denso, and Veoneer (soon Magna). However, these companies face the challenge that their customers are willing to invest in software-defined vehicles. They also face growing competition from China, with developments such as Hasco from SAIC and FinDreams Technology from BYD. Many have received funding since 2015.

At the semiconductor level, the $1.8B 2022 market was mainly shared by the duopoly of NXP & Infineon. TI was the biggest competitor; Renesas was just positioned with a complete portfolio, while Arbe had market acceptance and started generating revenues as its solution was accepted by a Chinese Tier-1 and a prestigious European Tier-1 (Veoneer). Another significant player prepared to tackle the automotive radar market opportunity is MobilEye. The company plans a commercial offering for radar on its next-generation “Chauffeur” by 2025.

Most semiconductor radar players position on edge processing, the main market today and likely for the next five years. However, a transition towards centralizing radar computing has started and will soon take off.

Toward radar-based full perception mapping

Automotive radar sensors are starting a paradigm shift. Their mission evolved from tracking a limited list of moving objects to generating a perceptual map.

The first breakthrough improvement was enabling elevation measurements with radar modules (the “4th D” of radars). This was key to deciding on whether or not drive over road debris and drive under bridges and has been the focus of 5th-generation radars from the leading players.

But the most significant breakthrough required is the order of magnitude angular resolution improvement needed for proper target separation. The first so-called imaging radar achieved 1° angular resolution by scaling the MIMO concept. The principle is to increase the number of transmit and receive antennas to get a bigger virtual antenna array aperture. However, there are some physical limits to antenna scaling, starting with the size of the array. Another limiting factor is the computing power and memory resources necessary for such an array. A solution could be computing centralization. With centralized architecture, the computing part of the radar is likely to be removed and delocalized to a zonal ECU. Radars will be cheaper and smaller, and their computational power will be increased, thus improving their performance. Vehicle centralization is the new trend among OEMs and should become a reality around 2030 - 2035.

There have been substantial performance improvements in the RF sensor itself. Key figures of merit improved, along with better temperature stability. Meanwhile, integration has been further enhanced thanks to a move toward mature CMOS technologies.

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Radar for Automotive 2023

<img src="https://medias.yolegroup.com/uploads/2023/07/discount-2023-product-page-banners.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="200" data-eio="l" />

Total automotive radar market expected to reach $13.6B in 2028 with a CAGR22-28 of 12%, driven by new safety regulations and imaging radar innovations.

Radar is beginning the next market growth wave

Historical leaders far ahead, but startups and newcomers are pushing

Toward radar-based full perception mapping