Semiconductor Sensors for Automotive 2023

Report objectives

Scope of the report 

Methodologies & definition 

About the authors

Companies cited

What we got right, what we got wrong

2017 vs. 2023 forecast comparison 

Inventory dynamics not considered in this report

3-page summary 

Executive summary

Context 

Market trends and forecasts 

• What is taken into consideration? 
• Which modules are included – Split by domain 
• Two main trends for vehicles 
• Automation evolution 
• Impact of main trends on the sensor market 
• Evolution of semiconductor sensor content per car 
• Expected big moves for sensors
• How Automotive trends will impact the sensor market 
• What types of sensors are included
• Volume of what we include vs. what we don’t include 
• Market forecast by device
• Market forecast by domain 
• Powertrain & EM market forecast by device 
• ADAS & Safety market forecast by device 
• User Experience market forecast by device 
• Body & Chassis market forecast by device 
• MEMS Pressure sensor market forecast by domain 
• Magnetic sensors market forecast by domain 
• Inertial MEMS market forecast by domain
• Environmental sensors market forecast by domain 
• CIS market forecast by domain 
• Radar market forecast by domain 

Market shares & supply chain

• Sensors for automotive global market shares 
• MEMS Pressure sensors market shares 
• Inertial MEMS market shares 
• Magnetic sensors market shares 
• Environmental sensors market shares 
• Sensors for automotive supply chains - FLP 
• How is the ecosystem expected to evolve in the long-term?
• CIS market shares 
• Radar market shares 
• LiDAR market shares 
• Sensors for automotive supply chain - modules
• How is the ecosystem expected to evolve in the long-term? 

Technology trends 

• Powertrain 
• ADAS & safety 
• User experience 
• Body and Chassis 

Technology, Process, & Cost Report 

• Electrification tracks 
• Chassis & safety tracks
• Chassis & safety modules – reverse costing 
• Automotive magnetic position sensors – reverse costing 
• User experience – reverse costing 

Outlook 

About Yole Group 

AKM, Alibaba, Allegro MicroSystems, Analog Devices, Ambarella, Amphenol, ams OSRAM, Analog Devices, Anhui Jianghuai Automotive Group, Apple, Aptiv, ARM, Aryballe, AUO, Autotalks, BAIC Group, Baidu, BMW Group, BOSCH, BYD Auto, Changan Automobile Group, Chery Automobile, Cityhop, Continental, Cubic, Daimler Group, Danfoss, Denso, Dongfeng Motor Corp., DriveNow, Everlight, Excelitas, Faurecia, China FAW Group Corp., Figaro, FLIR, Ford Group, Global Power Technology, GlobalFoundries, GM Group, Great Wall Motor Company Ltd., Guangzhou Automobile Group, Hamamatsu, Hella, Honda, Honeywell, Huawei, Hyundai Kia Automotive Group, Infineon, iSentek, Isuzu, Kyocera, Magna, Mahindra & Mahindra, Mazda, MediaTek, Melexis, Mobileye, modo, Murata, Nvidia, NXP, OmniVision, ON Semiconductor, Ouster, Panasonic, Paragon, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Redpine Signals, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance, Renesas, Rohm, SAIC, Samsung, Sciosense, Semikron, Senseair, Sensitec, Sensirion, Sharp, Siemens, SK Hynix, SmartEye, Sony, Stellantis, STMicroelectronics, Subaru, Suzuki, Tata Group, TE Connectivity, TDK, Tesla, Texas Instrument, TowerJazz, Toyota Group, TSMC, Uber, UMC, Umicore, Velodyne, Veoneer, Vishat, Visteon, VW Group, Waymo, Wingtec Technology, Wolfson, Xilinx, Xperi, ZF, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and more.

Key Features 

• 2022-2028 forecast for market value, volume for automotive applications including ADAS & Safety, Powertrain, User Experience, Body & Chassis.
• 2022-2028 forecast for market value, volume for specific sensors including MEMS pressure, Magnetic sensor, MEMS Inertial, Environmental sensors, CIS, Radar.

What’s new?

• 2022-2028 forecast by domain including ADAS & Safety, Powertrain, User Experience, Body & Chassis.
• Complete overview of sensor trends for each domain.

Product objectives

Give an overview of sensors for automotive applications

• Sensor dynamics by domain.
• What are the technologies used, and what are the ongoing evolutions?

To provide a complete overview of sensor trends and a 2022-2028 forecast of market value, shipments, for automotive applications. This includes:

• ADAS & Safety
• Electrification
• User Experience
• Body & Chassis

Deliver an in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players

• Who are the players?
• What are the market shares?

Sensors at the heart of automotive innovations

Since the inception of semiconductors in cars in the 20th century, sensing techniques have kept proliferating. Initially meant to optimize the powertrain’s efficiency, growing safety concerns have made some sensors mandatory: ABS, ESC, airbags, etc. Driven by technology and its integration into high-end cars first, innovation has diffused to mid to low-end models over the years, giving birth to a multi-billion units industry.

5.4 billion sensors for the automotive market were shipped in 2022 globally, generating $7.8B in revenue. And with a strong 10% revenue CAGR22-28, we expect it will grow to $14B in 2028 with 8.3 billion sensors shipped worldwide. During these coming years, the automotive industry is expected to go through massive transformations in all four car domains:

• Powertrain: the Automotive industry is transitioning from cars based on internal combustion engines (ICE), which represented 93% of the production in 2018, to electrified cars, which are expected to represent 37% of the production in 2028. In terms of sensors, the Powertrain & EM domain will be worth more than $1.5B by 2028, growing with a 2% CAGR22-28. In the long term, the electrification of cars will induce critical changes in the sensor landscape by giving birth to new applications while removing others.
• ADAS & Safety: from enhanced safety to autonomous driving, cars are becoming more intelligent. Cameras, LiDARs, radars, and so on are helping cars take action based on an understanding of their environment. Revenue from the ADAS & Safety segment is by far the largest of all segments. Revenue of $8B is expected to be generated by 2028.
• User Experience: for product differentiation, the number of functionalities increased, and the in-cabin comfort improved over the years. Fostered by autonomous driving (meaning more entertainment will be needed for the driver and the passengers), this domain will experience a nice 10% CAGR22-28, reaching more than $2.9B in 2028.
• Body & Chassis: to improve the safety of passengers, to send valuable data to the ADAS computing unit, or even to remove hydraulic parts of the car, the global sensorization of cars is driving the sensors volumes to grow with a 7% CAGR22-28. In terms of revenue, we expect almost $1.4B to be generated in 2028.

ADAS and autonomous driving, electrification, and global sensorization of cars are expected to vigorously shake up the sensors for the automotive industry in the coming years. As a result, a significant restructuring of the industry and its supply chain is expected. Hence, the time to make a strategic business plan and work with the right partners is now.

How automotive trends are affecting sensor manufacturers

With cars becoming more electrified and containing higher ADAS & safety component content, sensor manufacturers will grow or diminish, depending on their positioning.

The transition to fully electric vehicles will negatively affect players supplying sensors for traditional ICE applications such as engine pressure sensing, emission control, and engine control (EGR, throttle, shafts…). 

• In the next five years, these players will start to see the impact of this transition, but it will be even more impactful by the end of the decade, especially in 2035 with the ban on new ICE cars in Europe.
• MEMS pressure and gas & particle sensor suppliers like Bosch, TE Connectivity, NXP or Infineon will find new opportunities in the thermal runaway and CO2 sensing applications. Preventing thermal runaway at the battery level is critical for OEMs to avoid severe damage, while CO2 sensing is more a comfort feature for in-cabin applications that should really take off in the long term.
• Players involved in magnetic sensors like Allegro Microsystems, Infineon and temperature sensors like Sensirion are expecting tremendous opportunities as current and temperature parameters are crucial to monitoring the behavior of all new modules inside EVs. With the number of EVs expected to explode, these players should see strong revenue growth.

The higher content of ADAS & safety components will mainly impact players involved in image, radar, and LiDAR sensors. 

• Safety applications like airbags and ESP are already implemented in almost all vehicles, so the growth of MEMS accelerometers and inertial combos / IMUs will be mostly linked with vehicle sales growth, even if more airbags can be embedded per car. This will create some bulk sales for key players such as Bosch, Murata, NXP, and STMicroelectronics. 
• Strong growth is expected for image and radar sensors due to the increasing penetration rate of the AEB functionality in hands-off cars. These are expected to represent 65 million cars in 2028 compared to 25 million in 2022.

Future Technology evolutions expected in all car domains

Even though electrification and ADAS & safety are the main drivers, technology is expected to evolve in all car domains.

Powertrain: With the overall trend to increase battery capacities and develop 800V batteries, we expect the penetration of magnetic (isolated) technologies to ramp up in the coming years for current sensing in the OBC, DC/DC, inverters, and power modules. Indeed, shunt sensors are cheap and very accurate but lack galvanic isolation. Therefore, we expect a change in technology from shunt sensors to magnetic sensors in the coming years. Also, the battery must be kept in the optimal temperature range to ensure better performance, comply with safety requirements, and provide a longer life. To do so, magnetic sensors are positioned on thermal valves to precisely control the injection of cooling/heating fluids. Therefore, we expect the sensors content (in $) per BEV to grow from $4.3 in 2022 to $6.5 in 2028 (sensors specific to the BEV powertrain).

ADAS & safety: CMOS image sensors are expected to evolve to increase the number of frames per second, the dynamic range, and temperature resistance. This is not a significant technology change but to answer the need of Tier-1s and OEMs. Radar sensors are continuously evolving, and the next significant change is related to the introduction of 4D imaging radar to achieve a below 1° angular resolution, which is impossible with conventional 3D radar. This evolution is linked to the development of new MIMO technics enabling an increase of the virtual aperture while keeping a reasonable physical size. LiDARs are quite young compared to image sensors and radar, but their technology is changing rapidly. The main improvement is related to the range LiDAR can achieve. To do that, different types of lasers can be used, EELs, VCSELs, or fiber. But the main improvement is related to the receiver, where the technology is transitioning from avalanche photodiodes to SPADs and SiPMs that are much more sensitive. This will lead the sensors for ADAS & Safety content (in $) per car to grow from $45 in 2022 to $87 in 2028.

User experience: No real breakthrough technology is expected, but more sensors will be implemented for comfort applications. MEMS sensors will be used to improve phone calls and noise-canceling applications. Capacitive sensors will replace physical buttons, and radar will be used for occupant monitoring. Moreover, environmental sensors will be key devices to improve the in-cabin air quality. 

Body & Chassis: Main innovation will be linked to the development of brake and drive-by-wire technologies to remove hydraulic parts of the car. Here, magnetic sensors will be crucial for pedal position sensing and motor position monitoring. In addition, we expect a slow adoption of smart TPMS modules not only measuring tire pressure but also giving essential information on tire quality, weather conditions, and the car’s load to the main processing unit. Other applications could be linked to monitor the driver’s position on the seat and adjust its position slightly over time during long journeys.