Market and Technology Trends
Semiconductor Trends in Automotive 2023
By Yole Intelligence —
Chips to Wheels: The $84 billion Semiconductor Revolution
Alibaba, Ambarella, AMS, Analog Devices, Anhui Jianghuai Automotive Group, Apple, Aptiv, ARM, Aryballe, AUO, Autotalks, BAIC Group, Baidu, BMW Group, BOSCH, BYD Auto, Century Goldray Semiconductor, Changan Automobile Group, Chery Automobile, Cityhop, Continental, Cree, Daimler Group, Danfoss, Denso, Dongfeng Motor Corp., DriveNow, Everlight, Excelitas, Faurecia, China FAW Group Corp., FCA, FLIR, Ford Group, Global Power Technology, GlobalFoundries, GM Group, Great Wall Motor Company Ltd., Guangzhou Automobile Group, Hamamatsu, Hella, Honda, Huawei, Hyundai Kia Automotive Group, Ibeo, Infineon, Isuzu, Kyocera, Lextar, LG Innotek, Lumileds, Magna, Mahindra & Mahindra, Mazda, Mediatek, Melexis, Mobileye, modo, Murata, Nvidia, NXP, OmniVision, ON Semiconductor, Osram, Ouster, Panasonic, Perodua, PSA, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Quanergy, Redpine Signals, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance, Renesas, Rohm, SAIC, Samsung, Semikron, Senseair, Sensirion, Sharp, Siemens, SK Hynix, SmartEye, Sony, STMicroelectronics, Subaru, Suzuki, Tata Group, Tesla, TI, TowerJazz, Toyota Group, TSMC, Uber, UMC, Umicore, Veoneer, Vishat, Visteon, VW Group, Waymo, Wingtec Technology, Wolfson, Xilinx, Xperi, ZF, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and more.
100 billion semiconductor devices for cars in 2028
The market for semiconductor devices will grow from $43B in 2022 to $84.3B in 2028, a significant 11.9% CAGR. The current market represents a semiconductor device value of around $540 per car in 2022, which will grow to about $912 in 2028, with the number of semiconductor devices per car growing from about 850 (2022) to 1,080 (2028) driven by the implementation of ADAS and electrification. Electrification and ADAS are the main drivers for this growth with technological changes: In supporting the electrification trend, power device market for xEV will boost, strongly pushed by the SiC MOSFET module; MCUs with cutting-edge technology nodes as small as 16nm/10nm will be used for ADAS, including radar and other sensor controls; In the long term, beyond level 3 vehicle autonomy (eye-off) will drive increasing demand for memory (DRAM) and computing power.
Wafer shipment volume for all wafer sizes will grow from around 37.4 million units in 2022 to around 50.5 million units in 2028. Memory and logic are the main contributors to 300mm wafer shipment volume for automotive applications. 300mm wafer shipment volumes are important for this industry, as MCUs and memories are processed on wafers of this size.
Regarding nodes, most wafers will use technology at the 350nm node and above. Discrete power devices and modules are mostly larger than 350nm, representing the majority of wafer shipments.
From shortages to resilience: reinventing the automotive semiconductor supply chain
For electrification, vertical integration is becoming popular among OEMs and can be accomplished in multiple ways: for example, full integration down to component level, system integration and subcontracting build-to-print parts, strategic cooperation/direct investments with key component suppliers, etc. The conventional automotive supply chain needs to thoroughly examine its position and transform to retain a competitive portfolio through JVs, M&As, new investments and divestments. OEMs’ strategies vary between industry segments and regions: Power electronics is a popular segment, and several OEMs have direct investments; Some OEMs are focusing on powerful processors, mainly to be used in ADAS/AD and cockpit applications; Chinese OEMs are more enthusiastic towards semiconductor investment, partially due to lessons learned from the US-China trade dispute.
Although semiconductors are critical to the on-going disruptive transition in the automotive industry, most players, whether OEMs or Tier 1s, do not yet have a well-defined strategy towards semiconductors. Specific expertise in semiconductor technologies and the supply chain is needed to prepare for the future. There is a need to manage semiconductor complexity. OEMs need to prioritize essential ECUs and semiconductors and establish new relations with device manufacturers and foundries. Different purchasing strategies can be implemented: direct buy (the OEM buys the device from the semiconductor manufacturer) or directed buy (the OEM specifies to the Tier 1 from which sub-suppliers the semiconductor must be sourced). Semiconductor supply is still constrained, especially for mature nodes in which foundries are still reluctant to invest. In this context, two options would be offered to device manufacturers: re-design their device using smaller nodes (that is the wish of TSMC, for example) or rely more on Chinese foundries, the number of which is expected to increase significantly, thanks to government subsidies. Chinese foundries on mature nodes could represent 33% of the total market in the next few years.
Electrification, ADAS, and advanced computing: the triad fueling semiconductor innovation in autos
Passenger and light commercial vehicles are starting the ‘Market-driven’ period in the innovation adoption curve. Meanwhile, medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles are beginning the electrification process, mainly due to incentives and regulations. Four technical trends have been identified for powertrain and electrification: Integration of multiple high voltage systems; 800V enabling fast charging; SiC, a key component of 800V, is creating new supply chains; dedicated BEV platforms are becoming popular; Apart from SiC, there is still increasing applications of Si IGBT, especially with potential Si IGBT/SiC MOSFET hybrid module solutions in cracking the barrier of SiC adoption due to intrinsic high cost. Automotive applications have been the main driver for power SiC devices for the past few years, and we are expecting this to remain the case for the next five years due to strong penetration of 400V and 800V batteries into the BEV segment. EV/HEV are the main driver of SiC.
Pushed both by safety regulations and some OEM willingness to reach a higher level of autonomy, adoption of ADAS is rapidly increasing. ADAS sensors are very diverse in form, but primarily consist of cameras, radar, LiDAR, and ultrasonics. After cameras and radars, LiDARs are entering the market for driving-automation purpose. While EU or US OEMs limit LiDAR to the F segment, Chinese OEMs are now releasing cars in the D segment. These cars are much more affordable than those in the F segment, and a much higher volume of cars and, therefore, LiDAR will be produced. Indeed, more than 25 different Chinese OEMs are on the way to implementing LiDAR in their cars.
Processors are required to handle the growing amount of data streaming from these three sensors. This sensor diversity is expected to remain the status quo, as there is no individual sensor able to monitor the car’s surroundings in all conditions. The computing power needed depends on the sophistihttps://medias.yolegroup.com/uploads/2023/10/semiconductor_trends_for_automotive_2023-illu3.jpgcation of the task, the number of sensors, the resolution of these sensors, the complexity of the situation, and the level of redundancy required.
About the authors
Scope of the report
Methodology and definitions
Semiconductor trends and forecasts
- Where are semiconductors in cars?
- 2022-28 Semiconductor market for automotive applications
- Semiconductor forecast in cars by device
- Semiconductor forecast in cars by domain
- Average number of semiconductor devices per car
- Wafer in car forecast – all wafer sizes
- Wafer in car forecast – by node
OEM Strategy: Yole triple-C Model
Powertrain and electrification
- Key technology trends in electrification
- 800V adoption forecast
- SiC models rollout
ADAS and Safety
- ADAS camera penetration in cars (in %)
- Safety rating programs are driving radar adoption
- Passenger car market: distribution of cars with LiDAR (2018-2022)
- Main drivers for processor market growth
Infotainment and connectivity
- Driver monitoring and occupant monitoring systems
- New safety regulations to take place for surroundings
Body and chassis
- Adaptive driving beam (ADB) – Building blocks
- New ways to open the door?
- Evolution of braking systems
Yole Group – Corporate Presentation
- 2022-2028 forecast for market value, volume for semiconductors
- 2022-2028 forecast for market value, volume split by module and device category
- Deep analysis of semiconductors in power & electrification, ADAS & safety, infotainment & connectivity, chassis & body domains.
Triple C-analysis for OEM positioning on semiconductors
To provide an in-depth understanding of the changing car industry ecosystem and supply chain:
- What are the current and future internal and external factors that will have a lasting effect on the automotive industry?
- Who are the players, and why are new semiconductor players entering the car market?
- Who are the key suppliers to watch, and what technologies do they support?
To provide a complete overview of the current technological trends and a 2018-2028 forecast of market value, volume, and wafers for automotive applications. This includes:
- Powertrain and electrification
- ADAS and safety
- Infotainment and connectivity
- Chassis and body
To provide key technical insights into and analyses of future technology trends and challenges:
- Key technology choices
- Technology dynamics
- Emerging technologies and roadmaps
- Semiconductor content in cars