Market and Technology Trends

Quantum Technologies 2023

By Yole Intelligence — Feb 2023

Quantum computing technologies diversity will contribute to a US$4,087M market by 2035 including US$3,387M value for QaaS

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QaaS will be dominant beyond 2030

Quantum technologies have three primary applications: computing, communication, and sensing. Computing still attracts most of the R&D effort and investor money but pushed by quantum computing developments, the other fields are also starting to attract more attention: quantum networking will be necessary to interconnect quantum computers, and new applications will require ultra-sensitive sensors based on quantum effects.

As quantum computers become readily available, they will be able to break the current integrity keys used for data exchange. This creates a direct connection to quantum cryptography, and post-quantum approaches are being developed to prevent future hacking by quantum computers (communication, bitcoins, cryptocurrency, etc., could also be compromised by quantum computers).

Driven by emerging high-performing applications (e.g., robotics, brain-computer interface), new types of quantum sensors will also be developed in the future. Currently, the most common quantum sensors are gravimeters and atomic clocks.

The total quantum market will be US$2.1B in 2030. Quantum sensing has the largest share, with actual use cases. But beyond 2030, it is expected that quantum computing will dominate. In fact, the quantum computing market will total US$4.09B in 2035 (both hardware and service). QaaS (Quantum as a Service) will have the major share, with most of the services running on quantum computers in the cloud.

This is all about “building an INDUSTRY”

The quantum ecosystem is maturing step-by-step and strengthening through research project collaborations, patent portfolio (China is currently dominant), creation of numerous startups (USA, Canada, and Europe are leading), and big semiconductor vendor/equipment makers entering the game.

So, step by step, an industrial quantum supply chain is developing as many companies are positioning themselves, from materials and equipment providers to chips foundries, systems, services, and associated hardware.

The involvement of semiconductor players (GlobalFoundries, TSMC, X-FAB, Intel, etc.), photonics (Ligentec), and equipment makers (Keysight, Formfactor, Oxford Instruments, AMAT, etc.) is setting up a robust technological base for future quantum technologies (spin QD is of course of interest, as it leverages Si CMOS technology). But partnerships are still critical since only some companies can pursue different R&D approaches simultaneously (Infineon is quite the exception, with R&D on three different technological qubit techniques: superconducting, trapped ions, and spin).

The trend today is to have a “full stack approach” from the quantum chips up to the computer and software/service level. However, as this approach requires significant R&D manpower, budget, and effort, not all players can do it.

No fixed technology choices (yet)

Over the past 5 - 6 years, quantum technologies have emerged from the lab and become a recurrent hot topic. But it is not just hype – every year, new technological breakthroughs have been achieved. But technology choices are not yet fixed. There are many options for qubits for quantum computers, and each has its pros and cons. Quantum performance is still evaluated by the number of qubits and their fidelity (as their life has not improved significantly).

It is likely, therefore, that future quantum computers will rely on various technology platforms (e.g., using hybrid quantum accelerators to speed the adoption of quantum calculators). There will be multiple approaches for multiple applications, mixing different technologies.

Quantum computing will inspire new ways of thinking. Although quantum computing will not be commercially usable until after 2030+, the investment time is now. We are still at the time of annealers and NISQ with no practical use case. However, the development of error correction code and large qubit-number QPUs will allow fault-tolerant quantum computers. Although quantum computing is still subject to technological and timing uncertainty, the roadmap is becoming more apparent regarding the timeline for the different types of quantum computers.

The objective today is to develop a “full stack approach” from the quantum chips up to the computer and software/service level.

The successful development will be achieved through the development of transitory approaches: annealers, NISQ, FTQC with associated specific tools, specific hardware and software. Many toolboxes will be required to support the realization of a QC and cryogenics and photonic systems specially dedicated to quantum computing such as lasers will be critical elements.

Key Features

Overview of the quantum technologies for computing (hardware and software), networking, and sensing.
Quantum supply chain description with entry of IC players
Possible future applications
Market forecast (up to 2030/2035 for computing)
Market shares
Major players profiles
Investments

What's new

Updated forecast for quantum technologies (computing hardware, QaaS, QRNG, QKD, sensors and timing devices)
Updated market shares
New supply chains and players profiles
Updated analysis on quantum software suppliers
Description of current quantum use cases
Updated investment analysis

Product objectives

Overview of the quantum technologies for computing (hardware and software), networking, and sensing.
Quantum supply chain description with entry of IC players
Possible future applications and current use cases
Updated market forecast for quantum technologies (computing hardware, QaaS, QRNG, QKD, sensors and timing devices), up to 2035 for quantum computing
Market shares and major players profiles in quantum technologies
Supply chain
Investments

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Quantum Technologies 2023

Quantum computing technologies diversity will contribute to a US$4,087M market by 2035 including US$3,387M value for QaaS

QaaS will be dominant beyond 2030

This is all about “building an INDUSTRY”

No fixed technology choices (yet)