RF for Connected Vehicle 2023

• 3-page summary
• Executive summary
• Automotive context
• Market forecasts (2018-2028 in Munits and $M)
  • Automotive production
    • By connectivity type (2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, unconnected) and V2X integration
  • Connectivity module forecast
    • TCU forecast by air standard (2G, 3G, 4G, 5G) and region
    • OBU forecast by air standard (DSRC, LTE-V2X, Hybrid-V2X) and region
  • Connectivity sub-module forecast
    • NAD forecast by air standard (2G, 3G, 4G, 5G) and region
    • V2X sub-module forecast by air standard (DSRC, LTE-V2X, Hybrid-V2X) and region
  • Chipset & RFFE forecast
    • TCU/OBU Chipset forecast by type of component (modem, transceiver, SoC)
    • TCU/OBU RFFE forecast by type of components (PAM, MMMB PA, LPAD, FEM, Filter, Switch)
    • TCU/OBU GNSS receiver forecast by type of component (SoC, module)
  • Wafer start forecast
• Market trends
  • V2X market trends
    • Use-cases, macro drivers, NCAP, challenges for adoption
  • TCU market trends
    • Digital transformation, eCall and ISA regulation, NCAP, 5G
• Market shares & supply chain
  • Ecosystem analysis
  • M&A, collaboration, fundraising
  • PC/LCV market share
  • Module maker Market share
  • Sub-module maker Market share
  • Chipset market share
  • RFFE market share
• Technology trends
  • Cellular connectivity trends in automotive
  • GNSS techno trends
  • V2X technology trends
• Outlook

Achieving full vehicle connectivity by 2030

The V2X concept emerged 20 years ago to enhance safety, environmental benefits, and traffic efficiency. However, challenges like non-interoperable DSRC and C-V2X technologies, lack of standardized global frequency allocation, and high deployment costs hindered widespread adoption. Nevertheless, the landscape is evolving rapidly, with compelling use cases like Teleoperated Autonomous Vehicles and Automated Valet Parking expected to be implemented by the end of the decade. NCAP programs, especially China NCAP and EuroNCAP, are also driving V2X adoption as soon as 2025.

On the other hand, telematics adoption is driven by lucrative business opportunities, offering enhanced user experience and valuable data for OEMs. Mandatory connectivity-based safety features like eCall and ISA are expanding globally. The adoption of 5G connectivity is influenced by higher costs and the absence of a definitive killer application, but it aligns with software-defined architecture for advanced autonomous driving.

The connectivity module market is projected to grow to $6.1B in 2028 with a CAGR of 15%.

Qualcomm: The Go-To provider for automotive connectivity

The automotive connectivity landscape has evolved with the introduction of technologies like 5G and C-V2X. In the 4G era, Intel, HiSilicon, and Qualcomm served the market, but Qualcomm took the lead in 5G after HiSilicon and Intel exited the business. Samsung and MediaTek entered the market recently, but qualification cycles in the automotive connectivity industry are long, so Qualcomm's dominance is expected to continue in the short term.

Regarding V2X, NXP initially led with its DSRC chipset, but due to regulatory challenges and the introduction of C-V2X, Autotalks and Qualcomm gained prominence. Qualcomm's advantage lies in its scale and the integration of V2X in the cellular baseband, aligning with non-safety applications. However, for safety-related V2X applications in the future, AutoTalks is expected to excel as a standalone V2X is necessary for ASIL-B certification.

In terms of GNSS, Qualcomm's integration of GNSS capabilities in its cellular baseband impacted U-Blox's position in the TCU business. However, with safety becoming a requirement for future applications, GNSS players like U-Blox are seeing renewed interest.

Consolidation has occurred among sub-system companies, such as the merger of Telit and Thales’ module business and the equity acquisition of Rolling Wireless by Fibocom. At the Tier 1 level, consolidation has already occurred, with Valeo acquiring Peiker and Samsung purchasing Harman. However, there are still numerous small-scale companies in the supply chain that may be acquired as the market continues to grow.

RedCap and Intelligent Antennas put 5G-V2X cars within reach

The adoption of V2X technology faces challenges due to incompatible standards and spectrum allocation worldwide, hindering V2X implementation in OEMs’ vehicle fleets. However, positive regulatory developments include the FCC adopting a new spectrum for V2X in the US and C-V2X gaining traction with government support in China and the US. ​

One obstacle is the high cost of dedicated V2X devices, but OEMs are pushing to integrate the TCU and OBU into a single intelligent antenna to reduce costs and simplify integration. The transition from 4G to 5G TCUs offers higher data rates but at a higher price, which RedCap aims to reduce as soon as 2027. ​

OEMs also seek improved precision and Dead Reckoning capabilities in positioning, driving the need for dedicated dual-band GNSS modules with INS. The convergence of TCU and OBU supports this trend, and integrating the GNSS antenna near or within the conformal antenna minimizes RF losses. ​

It is projected that 5G cars will account for 40% of new cars sales in 2028, and V2X-equipped cars will represent 17% of global new cars sales in the same year.​

Actia, Alps Alpine, Apple, Aptiv, ASE, Askey, Autotalks, BMW, Bynav, Broadcom, CanaanTek, Chemtronics, Cohda Wireless, Commsignia, Continental, Denso, Ettifos, Fibocom, Ficosa, Ford, Furuno, GCS, Global Foundries, Grandeur RF, Harman, HiSilicon, Honda, Hyundai, Hyundai Mobis, Infineon, Intel, iWave, JCET, Joynext, JRC, Kyocera, Lansus, LG, Lyft, Magneti Marelli, Maxscend, Mediatek, Mitsubishi, Morningcore, MuRata, Neoway, Neusoft, NIO, NXP, OnMicro, Panasonic, Psemi, Quectel, Qualcomm, RadRock, ROFS, Rolling Wireless, SimCom, SMIC, Sony, STMicroelectronics, Stellantis, Taiyo Yuden, Telit Cinterion, Tower, TSMC, Uber, U-Blox, Unisoc, Valeo, Vanchip, Visteon, Volkswage, Wavetek, Waymo, WiPAM, Wisol, WNC, WST, Xiaomi, ZTE and more…

Key Features

• Forecast for TCU by radio (2G,3G,4G,5G) and region (Europe, US, China, Japan/Korea, Rest of the World)
• Forecast for OBU by radio (DSRC,C-V2X) and region
• Forecast for NAD module by radio and region
• Forecast for V2X module by radio and region
• Forecast for chipset & RF front end components by radio and region
• Market share for TCU & OBU Tier1
• Market share for NAD & V2X module Tier2
• Market share for automotive connectivity chipsets
• Market share for automotive connectivity RFFE components
• Market trends in Telematics
• Market trends in V2X
• Overview Telematics & V2X supply chain

Product objectives 

Yole has combined its long expertise in semiconductor and its deep knowledge of  automotive connectivity technologies and market to deliver this first edition of the “RF for connected vehicles” report, which has the following main objectives:

• Provide market metrics and forecasts for automotive connectivity:
  • Forecast for connectivity module (TCU and OBU) by air standard and region.
  • Forecast for connectivity sub-module (NAD and V2X) by air standard and region.
  • Forecast for connectivity and GNSS chipset.
  • Forecast for RFFE components by type of component.
• Analyze the drivers and challenges for automotive connectivity adoption:
  • Market trends for V2X and Telematics.
• Present main technological trends and ongoing developments on automotive connectivity with a focus on 5G RedCap and GNSS correction services:
  • Global 2015-2030 roadmap for automotive connectivity deployment (3GPP, NCAP, Regulations…).
  • TCU and OBU architectural trends towards conformal antenna.
  • GNSS positioning and correction service trends.
  • Detailed BoM analysis.
  • Significant chipsets launch.
  • 5G RedCap technological analysis.
• Oversee the main players across the automotive connectivity supply chain:
  • Overview of the automotive connectivity ecosystem. Key players by technology, application and location.
  • Detailed Market Shares analysis of OEM, Module, Sub-Module, Chipset and RFFE components.
• Analyze how the business models and supply-chains are evolving:
  • Recent acquisitions and funding. Latest company news.