Status of the Rechargeable Li-ion Battery Industry 2021

Key features

• 2020 - 2026 battery demand (in GWh and $M) for three main application segments: consumer electronics, electric mobility, and stationary energy storage
• Analysis of different Li-ion chemistries and their applicative potential
• Technology trends for Li-ion battery cells, cell components, and battery packs
• Li-ion battery supply chain, ranging from raw material supply, cell components, and manufacturing/testing equipment to battery integrators and battery recycling companies

Report objectives

• Offer deep insights into the rechargeable Li-ion battery market, covering the three main application segments: consumer electronics, electric mobility, and stationary energy storage
• Furnish 2020 - 2026 battery demand data (in GWh) and market value (in $M) for various Li-ion battery applications
• Offer a thorough analysis of different Li-ion chemistries and their future applicative potential
• Discuss the cost analysis of various types of Li-ion batteries.
• Discuss main challenges associated with Li-ion batteries
• Discuss the main technology trends for Li-ion battery cell materials, formats, sizes, and cell components (cathode, anode, electrolyte, and separator), as well as battery packs
• Provide a detailed overview of the Li-ion battery supply chain, ranging from raw material supply, cell components, and manufacturing/testing equipment to battery integrators in different applications and battery recycling companies

WORLDWIDE LI-ION BATTERY DEMAND IS INCREASING ENORMOUSLY!

Global Li-ion battery demand continues its impressive growth and will reach a massive 1156 GWh of yearly demand by 2026. The main reason for this growth is the demand for electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EV/HEV) and other e-mobility applications. According to Yole Développement (Yole)’s analysis, e-mobility alone will represent about 88% of global Li-ion battery demand.
In the “Status of Lithium-ion battery 2021” report, Yole analyses three key battery market segments: consumer applications, e-mobility, and stationary battery storage. In addition, market and technology trends for the different applications and their battery characteristic requirements are detailed.
The tremendous growth in demand for Li-ion batteries is due to various factors. First is the increasing demand for a given application. Second, in some applications (e.g., power tools), Li-ion battery’s share is increasing via progressive replacement of “older” battery technologies like lead-acid and NiMH batteries. Third, and yet another factor fueling battery demand, is the new battery applications and a growing share of battery-powered power tools and consumer devices.

THE SUPPLY CHAIN IS RESHAPING IN ORDER TO REDUCE COST AND GET CLOSER TO CUSTOMERS

Li-ion battery has become the technology of choice for many applications. As a result, it attracts numerous players: R&D labs, cell component manufacturers, cell and battery pack manufacturers, and system integrators.
Asia dominates the Li-ion battery supply chain, especially China, where Chinese Li-ion battery manufacturer CATL is the world leader in battery manufacturing. China’s success results from its sizeable domestic battery demand, control of more than 70% of the world’s graphite raw material refining, and massive cell and cell component manufacturing capacity. Korea and Japan rank number two and three in the Li-ion battery supply chain. While both countries are among the leaders in battery and cell component manufacturing (LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, Panasonic), they do not have the same influence in raw materials refining and mining as China.
Although Asia dominates the Li-ion battery supply chain, Europe is on the rise. As EV demand grows, there is an increasing need to establish cell manufacturing facilities close to the EV production site. To access the European EV market, Asian battery makers implement their factories in European countries. At the same time, European companies also invest in European battery factories to catch the business associated with domestic battery demand.
Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles are in high demand, and in the future, battery supply may be an obstruction. Therefore, all carmakers have pursued different strategies to secure cell supplies. For example, many carmakers partner with battery manufacturers (e.g., BMW and Northvolt); many carmakers jointly establish a battery-manufacturing factory with cell manufacturers (e.g., GM with LG Energy; Renault with Envision AESC and Verkor); and many carmakers are in a race to develop in-house battery production (e.g., BYD, Tesla, Daimler).
As battery demand grows, the need for battery components (anode, cathode, electrolyte, and separators) also increases. To meet this demand, the companies manufacturing battery components (e.g., BTR, Asahi Kasei, SK Innovation) are increasing their production capacity rapidly.

BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT AND COST REDUCTION

As EV drives global battery demand, most technology innovations and development efforts focus on EV battery cells. Regarding battery cathode chemistry, there is a clear trend towards nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide (NMC) technology due to its «universal» characteristics that match the requirements of a large variety of products and applications. Within NMC technology, the trend is to reduce the cobalt content such as NMC811 and NMC721. At the same time, there is renewed interest in lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) because of its lower cost, despite its relatively low energy density. A few carmakers have already confirmed using LFP batteries to power their EVs, such as Tesla and BYD.
In the case of the anode, graphite is the primary anode material; however, the trend is moving to add silicon to the graphite material to increase the energy density of Li-ion battery cells.
In the past, carmakers commonly used a single battery chemistry for all their electric vehicles. However, with a growing number of car models per car manufacturer and a more extensive customer portfolio, two or more battery chemistries are used by each car maker. Most commonly, two different chemistries are used to satisfy the requirements of different EV users: a “high-performance” one and an «affordable» one. For example, Tesla is using NMC811 batteries for high-performance Made-in-China Model 3 and LFP batteries for affordable Made-in-China Model 3. Volkswagen and Renault also plan to use LFP and NMC batteries to power their upcoming EVs. Furthermore, to reduce the supply shortage issues and reach required volumes, car makers usually partner with several cell manufacturers. For example, Tesla uses NCA batteries produced by Panasonic, and NMC811 and LFP batteries produced by LG Energy and CATL, respectively, for its different EVs.
Although there is a strong development effort to find alternatives to existing Li-ion technologies, there will be no significant battery breakthrough in the coming years, according to Yole. Instead, battery improvements will be progress steadily. The focus will be on cost reduction and environmental, economic, and safety issues related to battery production and end-of-life battery handling.

Scope of the report 7

Methodology 8

What we saw / what we missed 11

Who should be interested in this report 12

Three-page summary 14

Executive summary 18

Introduction 54

Market forecast 58

• 2020 – 2026 Li-ion battery cell demand in MWh and in $M – consumer electronics
• 2020 – 2026 Li-ion battery cell demand in GWh and in $B – E-mobility
• 2020 – 2026 Li-ion battery cell demand in MWh and in $M – stationary battery energy storage
• 2020 – 2026 total Li-ion battery-cell demand (GWh) and market value ($B)
• 2020 – 2026 battery-cell average selling price evolution

Market trends 72

Li-ion battery supply chain 119

Battery cost analysis 176

Li-ion battery main challenges 186

Li-ion battery innovation 197

Technology trends – Battery cell 212

Technology trends – Battery pack 248

Second-life battery and recycling 273

Conclusion 287

About Yole Développement 297

3M, Ambatovy, Alabama Graphite, Accumotive, Altairnano, Alelion, Automotive Energy Supply Corporation, Akkuser, American Manganese, Advance Lithium Systems Europe, Akasol, ABB, Adstec, Albermarle, Asahi Kasei, ATL, ALL Cell, Ashok Leyland, Amperex Technology, ACC, AES, Aoyu Graphite Group, AMTE, Advano, BASF, Bitrode, Boston Power, Batrec, Brunp Recycling, BMW, BMZ, BAK, Bosch, Benergy Tech, BTR, BYD, Britishvolt, Battery Resourcers, Batrec, Cangzhou Mingzhu, CATL, CALB, Chilwee, Cealtech, Cenate, Capchem, Critical Elements, China Baoan Group, China Molybdenum, DOW, Dowa Eco-system, Duesenfeld, Daikin, Dynapower, Dynanonic, Delvotec, Daimler, DESAY, DNP, Dongguan Shanshan Battery Material, Dinho Technology, Digatron Power Electronics, Dongguan Honbro Li-ion Battery Equipment Technology Co., Ltd., Electric Vehicle Power System, Enovix, Enevate, Entek, Eliiy Power, Envirostream, Elmarco, Europe Batteries, Envision AESC, Enphase, European Batteries, Engie, Elkem, Enwires, E-One Moli Energy, EAS, Electrovaya, Electric Power Research Institute, Eguana, Fortum, Forsee Power, F&K, Freyr, Fangda Carbon New Material, FDK, FMC, Freudenberg, Focus Graphite, Freeport-Cobalt, Freeport-McMoran, Furukawa Electric, Festo, Fronius, First Energy, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech Optoelectronic Material, Green Smith, GRST, Green Charge, Goutai-Huarong, Ganfeng Lithium, GE Energy, Galaxy, GEM, Golden Light Hi-Tech, GS Yuasa, Group14, Hanrui Cobalt, Henan Kelong New Energy, Hioki, Hitachi Metals, HBM, Honbro, Hefei Guoxuan Hi-Tech Power Energy Co. Ltd., Hesse Mechatronics, Hi Future, Huayou Cobalt, Iron Edison, IF, Inobai, Italvolt, Ingeteam, Jinchun, JFE, Jinhe, Japan Metals & Chemicals, JX Nippon Mining & Metals, Johnson Matthey, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor, KCFT, Kureha, Kanto Denka Kogyo, Keysight, Kokam, Kulicke & Soffa, LG CNS, Leclanché, Li-Cycle, LG Energy Solution, Lishen, Lithium Americas, Lithium South Development Corp., Leydenjar, Maison Graphite, Maccor, Manz, Microvast, Mahindra Electric, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mitsubishi Motors, Mitsubishi Paper Mills, Mitsui Chemical, Morita, Morrow, Mbraun, Molicel, Metal Recycling Reimagined, Nornickel, Netzsch, NEC Energy Solutions, Northvolt, Nichia, Nippon Carbon, Nippon Chemical Corporation, Nippon Denko, Nissan, Northern Graphite, Namaska Lithium, Nextera Energy, Nuode, Narada, NeoLithium, Nanomakers, Nanograf, Nanospan, OneD Material, Optimum Nano, Orocobre, Optodot, Paraclete, Posco, Piedmont, Pride Power, Phylion, Panax Etec, PEC, Panasonic, Parker, Pihsiang Energy, Qingdao Haida Graphite, Quantum Minerals Corp., RES, Renewable Energy, Redux, Ronbay Lithium Battery, Recupyl, Retriev, Red Fairy, Saft, Samsung SDI, Showa Denka, SEC Carbon, Scud, SGL Group, Schneider Electric, Schunk Sonosystems, Senior, Shanghai Dinho New Material Technology, SK Innovation, SMA, Smooth Way, Sungeel Hitech., Sovema, SENEC, SQM, Stella, Sumitomo Chemical, Sunverge, Stem, Siemens, Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), SCUD, Sherritt, Sungrow, SCLE, Soulbrain, Semcorp, Shanshan Technology, Sila Nanotechnology, Sunstone, SSL Energie, SNAM, Saint-Gobain, Scope, Sunlong, Shenzhen BAK Battery, Tibet Shigatse Zhabuye Lithium High Tech Co., Tanaka Chemical Corporation, Targray, Thermotron, Tektronix, Tesla, Tokai Carbon, Toda Kogyo, Toppan, Toray, Tesla, Toshiba, Tata Chemicals, Total, Tianqi Lithium, Toyota, Talison Lithium, Tomiyama Pure Chemical Industries, Teijin, T&T Enertechona, Toppon, Terrafame, Tata Motors, UACJ, UBE, Umicore, Volta, Varta, Veolia, Wanxiang Group, XALT, Yahua, ZhuHai Coslight Battery, ZCCM Investments Holding Plc, ZEC and more…