NAND Market Monitor

NAND market overview

• Executive summary – market dynamics
• Current events - China sanctions, other news
• Market summary, near- and long-term
• Revenue – historical & forecast
• Shipments
• Pricing
• Operating margins
• Sufficiency
• Near-term supply & pricing outlook
• Capex

NAND market shares 

• Revenue share
• Bit shipment share
• Regional shares
• Segment shares

NAND demand

• Segment bit demand & share
• Mobile
• SSD summary
• Client/PC SSD
• Enterprise/datacenter SSD
• SSD vs. HDD summary
• Automotive
• Gaming
• Chromebook
• Removable storage

NAND supply

• Wafer production by supplier, fab location, process, and technology
• GB per wafer by supplier
• 3D NAND supplier roadmaps
• Bit production by process & technology
• Density mix by bits and units
• Technology bit mix by segment

NAND supplier profiles

• Samsung
• Kioxia
• Western Digital
• Micron
• SK hynix
• Solidigm
• YMTC
• Other suppliers

Consolidation scenarios 

• Intel + SK hynix (complete)
• Western Digital + Micron
• Kioxia + Micron
• Kioxia + SK hynix
• Kioxia + WD
• “End-game” consolidation

Appendix/Backup

Yole Group coporate presentation

Market rebound driven by AI demand

Looking back on Q1 2024

• Q1 2024 saw a significant surge in demand from the enterprise SSD segment with ~26% units growth QoQ in shipments seen by the memory suppliers.
• This demand surge led to a sharp increase in the blended ASP of NAND flash. As a result, the average industry operating margin finally returned to positive territory, ending a five-quarter streak of negative margins.
• AI servers appear to be the primary driver behind the demand surge, with configurations requiring up to 10 server-attached SSDs and increasing demand for low latency storage.
• Memory supplier have further reduced their inventory and started to increase their capacity utilization to be able to supply rising ship in demand.

2024 and 2025 outlook

• Looking forward in 2024 and 2025, AI's influence on NAND demand is expected to extend beyond just server applications.
• AI integration in smartphones and PCs is projected to accelerate device refresh cycles, further driving NAND demand.
• Additionally, AI is likely to expedite the adoption of faster existing interfaces like PCIe 5.0 and UFS 4.0. The emergence of new, AI-tuned interfaces like ZUFS 4.0 is also anticipated.
• NAND flash memory suppliers will need to carefully manage production ramp-up to avoid both oversupplying the market and creating critical shortages.
• CAPEX for NAND is expected to remain low in 2024, similar to 2023 levels. As a consequence of this limited investment, the installed wafer capacity by early 2025 is projected to be reduced in comparison to the the pre-production cut capacity.
• Despite suppliers starting to increase their capacity utilization rate, the market is expected to be undersupplied along 2024

2024: Back to profit! 

In 2023, the NAND industry experienced its lowest revenue since 2016, totaling just under $40 billion shared across six players. These players experienced their lowest operating margin of the decade.

 However, the NAND market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 21% (CAGR2023-2029), driven by increased average unit contents and the cannibalization of HDDs by enterprise SSDs in data centers. Furthermore, the emergence of Gen AI is expected to contribute to increased data generation, further boosting average unit content. Mobile and SSDs are anticipated to maintain their dominance in driving NAND demand.

The monitor provides an overview of player dynamics, including market shares (bit, wafer, and revenue), NAND technologies, and process penetration. It shows historical shipments and forecasts by segment and interface for the next five years, as well as historical and projected revenue. This enables us to understand the cyclical phases of over and undersupply that influence NAND market pricing and profitability. Additionally, the Monitor covers the historical and forecast capital expenditure (capex) needed to sustain bit production growth. 

Whether it's for understanding market dynamics, managing procurement, assessing equipment requirements, or monitoring production, the Monitor serves as a valuable resource.

Kioxia Corp., Macronix International Co., Micron Technology, Inc., SK hynix Inc., Samsung Electronics Co. , Solidigm, Western Digital Corp., Winbond Electronics Corp., Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. (YMTC) and more​​

Key Features

• Quarterly Excel database and PDF presentation with analyst access included​
• Five-year market forecast for supply including fab capacity and wafer production, process & technology roadmaps, and demand by market segment, including client SSD, enterprise SSD, mobile, removable storage, automotive and consumer.​
• Market shares from 2015-present by supplier, region, and segment​
• Supplier financial data from 2015-present including revenue, ASP, operating cost per bit, and operating margin​
• Detailed two-year quarterly ASP forecast for key NAND components and packaged solutions

What's new

• Due to a disciplined control of production capacity utilization rates by suppliers, the market is projected to remain undersupplied throughout 2024. As a result, ASP are anticipated to rise, contributing to the NAND industry's return to profitability by the second half of the year. Capex are expected to remain low, with a focus on conversion in 2024.

Product objectives

Provide a comprehensive guide to the dynamic NAND flash market, including: 

• Overview of current market and competitive dynamics that will shape the market in thecoming quarters/years 
• Impact of geopolitical issues (e.g.US/China relations) on the NAND market 
• Historical data that provides context for the long-term outlook: market shares, supplier profitability, capex, etc. 
• Current drivers of NAND and SSD demand, including by end device, memory content, and technology type 
• Technology trends by supplier, including roadmaps, layer count, stacking, and hybrid bonding developments
• Wafer capacity evolution by supplier