Market and Technology Trends

Power Electronics for e-Mobility 2023 – Focus on passenger & light commercial vehicles

By Yole Intelligence — May 2023

The EV market is approaching the tipping point of replacing ICE, with power electronic semiconductors reaching $9.8B by 2028, enabled by SiC devices

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Key Features

2023-2028 forecast for xEV, converters, power modules, and Si/SiC wafers
BYD’s success formula in EV
Global supply chain in xEV/converter/power electronics, with a focus on China
Consumer electronics players in EV
Tesla’s potential strategies in -75% SiC
New converter topologies/functions in EV
SiC MOSFET comprehensive summary
Trends in power module packaging (Si IGBT & SiC MOSFET)

What’s new?

BYD’s success formula in EV. Tesla’s potential strategies in -75% SiC. Electrification of last mile delivery. New opportunities in developing countries.

Product objectives

WHAT are the key drivers of vehicle electrification
- 5 long-term and 2 short-term driving forces are identified, with key updates in last year
HOW will the market evolve:
- 6-year rolling forecasts on all levels of the supply chain: xEV à system à device à wafer markets
- A focus on SiC device/substrate
WHAT is the market situation and new opportunities:
- Detailed supply chain summaries on all levels: market performance, major players, who-supply-to-whom
- Focus on China, new market entrants from consumer electronics, and the developing world
WHAT are the key technologies and business opportunities:
- Shifting business paradigm enabled by rising new technologies at all levels
- Thorough review of key technology advances: integration, new functions, 800V, SiC, power module, etc., and possible scenarios on -75% reduction of SiC at Tesla are discussed

Power device market for EV will reach $9.8B in 2028

Vehicle electrification is speeding up globally within the major markets. The global light duty (LD) vehicle market will reach 93M units in 2028, with a 53.5% market share for xEVs. Among various electrification technologies, BEV leads the market with a 19.1% CAGR between 2022 and 2028, while the annual growth of xEV in general over the same period is 14.1%

The ICE market has started collapsing in some countries leading in electrification. For example, in China, NEV’s (new energy vehicle, including BEV, PHEV, and FCEV) share jumped from 13.4% in 2021 to 25.6% in 2022 (total vehicle market). As a result, OEMs with large ICE portfolios have started losing market.

The market value of all power converters combined will reach $29.0B in 2028, with a 12.2% CAGR between 2022 and 2028, thanks to constant cost reduction measures.

In supporting the electrification trend, the power device market for xEV will reach $9.8B, strongly pushed by SiC MOSFET modules, which alone will be worth $5.5B in 2028.

Tesla is pushing extremely hard for cost parity with ICE. It claims to greatly reduce costly SiC usage, with possible scenarios analyzed in detail. This cost reduction was closely followed by Chinese EV brands led by BYD, which recently launched a C-class PHEV at the same price as ICEs from peer brands.

Electrification goes beyond passenger vehicles. The increasing adoption of electric light commercial vehicles for ‘last mile delivery’ requires specific models with synergies with either passenger vehicles or medium-duty commercial vehicles. A new ecosystem is rapidly developing.

A new wave of consumer electronic players, such as Xiaomi, Sony, and potentially Apple, are joining the game. This could create new opportunities for existing Tier 1 suppliers, partially offsetting the trend among EV OEMs to increase in-house manufacturing.

Chinese OEMs show an obsession with power module packaging

Vertical integration shifts the automotive business landscape, as the importance of power devices is more appreciated in the era of electrification:

OEMs manufacture their own inverters: BMW, Volkswagen, Nio, etc.
OEMs manufacture their own power modules (some through JVs): Li Auto, GWM, Dongfeng, etc.
OEMs manufacture their own power devices (some through subsidiaries): BYD, Toyota, Geely, etc.

Si IGBT module suppliers are focusing intensely on 650/750V and 1200V rated devices, while SiC MOSFET module suppliers are heavily engaged in 1200V, perfect for 800V voltage platforms.

The SiC supply chain has a unique focus on substrate materials. Most device giants, such as STMicroelectronics, onsemi, and Rohm, are moving upstream to SiC wafering through M&As. OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers are working on various strategies, such as joint ventures, long-term supply agreements, and strategic partnerships, to secure their supply of SiC substrates.

The leading position of China in vehicle electrification, strongly dominated by local OEMs, incubates a local supply chain mixed with international players. Tier 1 suppliers are becoming local, while Tier 2 suppliers are still dominated by international businesses, with many local ones underwater. Both Si IGBT and SiC MOSFET are of interest for automotive power devices. Chinese OEMs demonstrate an obsession with in-house power module packaging.

Another potential in the supply chain has been identified for developing countries. Several countries are looking for opportunities in the electrification megatrend, mainly countries with quickly increasing vehicle markets. New brands are setting up, which gives existing Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers a new business landscape, while their available market in the developed world is under pressure due to increasing in-house manufacturing by OEMs.

SiC remains a focus, while cost reduction is urgently needed

Tesla claims to reduce the use of SiC by 75%; although admitting its superior performance, there is some potential to achieve this goal. The actual situation would be a combination of multiple measures:

Hybrid: a mixture of SiC MOSFET and Si IGBT at the module or system levels
Module cooling: improvement of module cooling implemented in lower power levels (OBC) would be applied to inverters;
Planar to trench: device improvement would save SiC area
Fleet and multiple sourcing: non-technical measures, but valid in cost reduction

A system integration trend continues with more cases at both OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers:

All-in-1 solution: combining 3-in-1 e-axle and other power units (OBC, DC/DC, PDU), with possibly more integration of BMS and VCUs. More OEMs, especially in China, are moving to such a strategy
Extended battery pack: fully integrated systems from e-motor and transmission to the battery pack. This is one step further towards fully integrated BEV chasses

800V, especially with complete 800V architecture, is becoming popular for high-power charging. This is shared by both LD and M&HD (medium and heavy duty) vehicles. SiC is the most suitable device type for 800V

Device innovations:

Si IGBT: moving towards a 12-inch wafer to save costs;
SiC MOSFET: more dedicated solutions, instead of Si IGBT solutions, are needed to benefit fully;
GaN: penetration into low power applications (DC/DC or OBC), and is at a very early stage of inverter application;
Other emerging substrates: Ga2O3 is more suitable for high-power applications with low operating frequency

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Power Electronics for e-Mobility 2023 – Focus on passenger & light commercial vehicles

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The EV market is approaching the tipping point of replacing ICE, with power electronic semiconductors reaching $9.8B by 2028, enabled by SiC devices

Power device market for EV will reach $9.8B in 2028

Chinese OEMs show an obsession with power module packaging

SiC remains a focus, while cost reduction is urgently needed