Market and Technology Trends
MiniLED 2023
By Yole Intelligence —
MiniLEDs under threat? China pushing hard against the OLED menace to mid range TVs, with new applications like automotive, expected to grow 100% by 2028
YINTR23349
Glossary
Table of Contents
Identity Card
Report Objectives
Yole's MiniLED Multi Customer Action
About the authors
Companies cited
What we got right, what we got wrong
Methodology
How we do it?
Context
- Mini and MicroLEDs
- Convergence between TV and DVLD
- MiniLED DVLD
- What an LCD with miniLED BLU is
- Evolution of local dimming in LCD BLU
- Chip size roadmap for DVLDs and BLUs
- Illustration: full-array local dimming
Three page summary
- MiniLED BLU path through applications
- Whose game is it?
- The right technological route to follow
Executive summary
Application trends
Application trends – context
- Display applications context
- OLED vs MiniLED Competition
- Sensitivity of the viewers – MiniLED vs Dual-LCD
- Sensitivity of the viewers – MiniLED vs OLED
Application trends – TVs
- Main challenges – Form factor
- Price competitivity vs. OLED – Agnostic OEMs offers
- The 65” Samsung TVs comparison
Application trends – IT
- Trends in OLED Adoption In Tablets and Notebooks
- The OLED for IT roadmap – A vicious cycle for now
- OLED vs MiniLED for IT – Apple roadmap
Application trends - VR
Application trends - automotive
- Automotive specific requirements
- Automotive use cases
- In-cabin displays typical sizes
- A sneak peek on OEM’s vision
- OLED for Automotive Roadmap
- MiniLED adopting models
- Automotive markets trickle down
Application trends - key takeaways
Market trends
Market trends – TVs
- 2020-2022 Trends in The TV Industry
- LCD panel market: From pandemic to 2023 plateau
- A stable market
- Price band location
- A region dependent path for players
- The Samsung move to OLED
- MiniLED for TV market forecast by OEMs region
- 2022-2028 TV volume forecast by size
- 2022-2028 MiniLED TV volume forecast by size
Market trends – IT
- Global IT market evolution
- 2022 – 2028 Notebooks forecast by technology
- 2022 – 2028 Monitors forecast by technology
Market trends – VR
- The VR slow rise entering its 2nd phase
- MiniLED penetration in VR
Market trends – automotive
- 2022 automotive market in units by players
- 2022 automotive market in units by geo and seg.
- Cascading technologies from one segment
- MiniLED for automotive display forecast
- MiniLED for automotive display forecast by size
Market trends – conclusion
- MiniLED forecast – Volume
- MiniLED forecast – Surface
- MiniLED forecast – GaN epiwafer
Market trends - key takeaways
Industry trends
Industry trends – context
- MiniLED Supply chain – From Chips to screen
- Transfer of Value with MiniLED Backlights 1/2
- Transfer of Value with MiniLED Backlights 2/2
- MiniLED backlight companies – An Asian stage
- The rise of off the shelf modules
Dynamics
- Apple moved in
- Apple to move out – And consequences
- Samsung embracing the OLED path
- Will TCL forever be the MiniLED frontrunner?
- MiniLED BLU players moves
Consumer goods supply chain
- Companies list
- Apple – iPad Pro 12.9” 2021
- Samsung Neo QLED 2021 and Odyssey G9
- TCL 2021 X12/X925 Pro
- Skyworth Q72 Supply chain
- MiniLED backlight for VR supply chain
Automotive supply chain
- Strategic positioning for Mini/MicroLED players
- MiniLED for in-cabin display supply chain
- Vertical integration trend
Industry trends - key takeaways
Technology trends
Technology trends - context
- Key Elements
- MiniLED intrinsic limitations
- Thickness vs. Uniformity
- Design and Performance Trade-Offs
- The IT OLED invasion
- The challenging price competition with OLED in TV
Technology trends - BLU
- Overview
- Passive and Active Matrix overview
- Driving and substrate couple roadmap
- Cost vs. Architecture: trends
- Active Matrix and AM/PM Hybrid Mini-drivers
- Examples: Apple, Samsung, TCL
- PCB layers issue
- The GCB trend
- Printed Circuit Boards vs. Glass Circuit Boards
- POB vs. COB/COG
- Evolution of TCL flagships
- Packed LED in series (under a lens dome)
- Separators to reduce halo effect and yellow ring
- BOE’s standards definition
- VR headsets – A consensus has been found
Technology trends - optical stack
- Application orientated choice of color conversion
- Phosphors interests over Quantum Dots
- Full stack of the iPad Pro 12.9”
- Quantum Dots interests over Phosphors
- Full stack of the Meta Quest Pro
- Hybrid solutions
Technology trends - overall cost structure
- Three players flagships comparison
- 2021 TV flagships reverse costing
- Cost reduction roadmap from the 2021 TCL flagship
- Focus on Samsung choices with Sanan chips
- Focus on Skyworth and its AM-GCB architecture
Technology trends – automotive
- Automotive specific constraints
- Color conversion
- Focus on PM-PCB solutions for 12.3”
- Glass substrate for Automotive MiniLED BLU
- The ideal candidate
Technology trends - key takeaways
Outlook
Yole Group related products
How to use our data?
About Yole Group
Towards a resilient path to compete with OLED
MiniLEDs for Backlight Units initially made a breakthrough in TV and are now added to LCDs in many display applications: Notebooks, Monitors, Tablets, VR, and Automotive.
OLED performance is improving on all fronts. In the meantime, competition and capacity are increasing, and costs are coming down. LG’s monopoly in OLED TV panels is now being challenged by Samsung’s QD OLED, BOE, and, in the next three years, possibly CSOT, all bringing new technologies and capacity.
With its rugged design and ability to withstand harsh environments, MiniLED technology redefines automotive displays, ensuring enhanced visibility and reliability on the road. It could be the solution to offer comparable visual performance while fulfilling automotive-specific requirements at a lower cost. We expect a remarkable 102.1% CAGR2023-2028 for MiniLED automotive displays.
Overall, we forecast MiniLED BLU-based devices to grow at a 34.4% CAGR from 18Munits in 2023 to 80Munits in 2028.
China leading the last dance of LCDs with MiniLEDs
After the effort put into the liquid crystal matrix (IPS, VA) and the conversion solutions (QD 2013, KSF 2014), the MiniLED-partitioned backlight is the latest method to improve LCDs even more.
OEMs are addressing those high-end segments not using OLED by using MiniLED. In other words, MiniLED represents the high-end of those who haven’t turned the OLED corner. In practical terms, MiniLED is the high-end made in China, as their opportunity to differentiate.
Their usage in TVs has been strongly led by TCL, but Samsung was in the spotlight with the Neo QLED branding in 2021 and 2022, gaining 80% of the MiniLED TV market share. Although Samsung is finally intending to catch up with LG and Sony on the OLED front, TCL will probably get its hands back on the wheel in promoting the technology again.
The porosity of MiniLED for BLU with other applications such as DVLD and MiP also contributes to the rapid growth of the technology in the very fertile Chinese landscape, which includes the huge chip makers Sanan, BMTC, HC Semitek, etc.
Moving toward active driving, while applications drive the choice of substrate
Some technological choices will be driven by price or by performance, depending on the application.
OLEDs are the technology of choice for high-end TVs, so MiniLED will be adopted for other segments, trickling down from the current higher end segments, to get a good enough visual performance. For this, we expect increasing use of active driving supported by fewer PCB layers. The ultimate TV solution will then be AM – PCB (1 layer). TCL exhibited a new packed LED chip design under a well-engineered lens dome in its backlight. We expect LED density to continue shrinking in TVs, making the design less complex and reducing the GaN surface.
The designs of MiniLED automotive displays will follow different paths depending on the segment targeted and the size of the screen – those being quite correlated. Initially, premium visual performance will be based on AM-GCB with >2,000 zones, whereas the cheapest solutions will be based on PM-PCB with <1,500 zones.
Acer, AOTO, Apple, Asus, Audi, AUO, BenQ, BMTC, BOE, Bosch, Buick, Cadillac, Canon Tokki, Changelight, Changhong, Continental, CSOT, Daimler, Ennostar, Epistar, Everlight, Feifan, Funai, GE, Haier, HC Semitek, Hisense, Hongli, Innolux, JDI, K&S, Konka, Lenovo, Lextar, LG, Li Auto, Longli, Macroblock, Meko, Mercedes, Meta, MSI, Nanosys, Nichia, NIO, Panasonic, Philips, Pico, Pimax, Pixey, Raytheon, Razer, Refond, SAIC, Samsung, Sanan, Sharp, Skyworth, Sony, TCL, Tesla, Tianma, Titanium, Toshiba, Varjo, ViewSonic, Visionox, Vizio, Volkswagen, WG Tech, Xiaomi, and more.
Key Features
- Discover MiniLED displays: benefits vs. drawbacks, key tech elements (LED size, architecture, driving mode), and module substrates (PCB, glass, TFT). Uncover roadblocks, disruptive potential, and applications. Detailed analysis, roadmaps, and cost considerations provided. Assess impact on existing tech. Explore competitive landscape, key players, MiniLED's influence on supply chains, and integration levels.
What’s new
- Revised forecasts, detailed analysis of potential new applications (IT, Automotive) versus how much competition comes from OLED. Players strategies.
Product objectives
This report provides a detailed analysis of MiniLEDs for backlight units and their applications:High-performance LCDs for TVs, tablets, notebooks, desktop monitors, automotive, and VR applications.
- Understand MiniLED display technologies:
- Benefits and drawbacks vs. other display technologies.
- Key technology bricks and associated challenges, cost drivers such as LED chip size, architecture, AM or PM driving, module substrate, i.e., PCB, glass, TFT glass, etc.
- Technology roadblocks.
- Led by established LED players, which applications could MiniLED displays address and when?
- Detailed analysis and roadmaps for major display applications.
- Cost analysis.
- How disruptive is the technology for incumbent technologies?
- Competitive landscape and supply chain:
- Identify the key players.
- MiniLED’s impact on the LED and display supply chains, transfers of value, etc.
- Dynamics of the MiniLED supply chain regarding degrees of integration.