MicroLEDs: horizontal ecosystems are setting up to compete

An article written in collaboration with Eric Virey and Raphaël Mermet-Lyaudoz from Yole Intelligence, part of Yole Group, for Information Display.

The initial optimism surrounding microLED technology in 2017, with expectations of commercialization by 2020–2021, has given way to a more extended timeline. Meaningful production volumes now are predicted to be achievable in the next 2–3 years, with widespread consumer adoption potentially taking 5–10 years.

According to Eric Virey, senior market and technology analyst at Yole Intelligence, “While the industry has seen substantial investment with over US$11.5 billion spent by 2023, including US$8.8 billion for R&D and startup funding and US$2.7 billion for pilot lines and manufacturing preparations, the path to success has been marked by ups and downs, often due to challenges in achieving high-yield, low-cost, high-volume production. Cost models struggle to demonstrate that microLEDs can match OLED prices, and even if they do, the differentiation will be small, particularly in competitive markets like smartphones”.

“Samsung’s 89-inch microLED TV is now available for about $100k, and more sizes should be released in 2024. A handful of monochromatic AR headset models using microLED microdisplays produced by JBD in their new Shanghai fab are already available. TCL Rayneo just introduced the first color model. But while we see some momentum in enterprise AR, volumes are still low. Consumer AR is still a long way out as many other technical challenges must be resolved beyond the display, including processing power and bandwidth, batteries, form factor, waveguides, social acceptance, and lack of a compelling use case. However, we are confident that when it happens, microLED will be the technology of choice for consumer AR,” said Virey.

The first real volume consumer application will be the smartwatch. AUO in Taiwan is starting low-volume production of smartwatch panels in December. The first luxury microLED watch from Tag Heuer could hit the market next spring. For high consumer-level volumes, Apple has to iron out the final technology and supply chain kinks and ramp up production with its partners Osram and LG Display.

“We expect microLED chip production to start at Osram in late 2025. This could theoretically lead to a first product later that year, but we’re being more conservative and currently not expecting a product release until 2026,” said Virey.

In the meantime, the supply chain also is preparing for automotive products, with a strong push by AUO and PlayNitride, and Tianma probably not too far behind. The automotive industry is showing a strong interest in microLED, and with the recent acquisition of BHTC, a Tier-1 automotive supplier, AUO now has direct access to automakers and their development plans.

Virey said he expects that this acquisition will accelerate adoption and that despite this industry’s traditionally lengthy qualification and design cycle, production of the first microLED automotive display will start as early as 2026 for low-volume integration in high-end car models in 2027.

Yole Intelligence has updated its microLED technology and market report to provide updates on microLED technologies, the competitive landscape and supply chain, and the various applications. Which applications could microLED displays address and when? What does the supply chain look like? What are the challenges?

… Read the full story here.

Source: Information Display