2023 Advanced Substrates Outlook

October 30, 2023

The advanced IC substrates market will double in the next five years.

With $15B+ in investment since 2021, advanced substrate is now in a 5-year growth cycle, supported by GPUs and AI accelerators, data center and cloud computing, as well as the spread of HBM. With $34B in 2028, advanced substrates provide another integration path in addition to front end and advanced packaging.

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The general trend in advanced substrates is a constant drive toward increased complexity. This involves increasing substrate areas and the number of layers, achieving finer pitches, and reducing L/S. This ambitious quest is facilitated by the adoption of semi-additive processes like SAP, mSAP, and amSAP. Some industry players are innovatively pursuing smaller L/S substrates by incorporating a thin-film RDL substrate onto the build-up IC substrate. Embedded dies, as well as SLP and glass core substrates and ABF-based substrates, are all key elements driving the growth of the advanced substrates industry. High-end smartphones are the primary application driving the SLP market to $3.8B in 2028. The adoption of ED-in-laminate substrate technology is a relatively recent development. However, this technology offers interesting advantages. ED adoption is set to peak after 2023, with the Industrial, Automotive, Telecom, and Infrastructure sectors leading the charge.

The heart of advanced substrate manufacturing is in Asia, primarily in three countries: Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. It is notable, however, that China is making significant advances with unprecedented investments, positioning itself to capture the market. In Europe, AT&S is the sole contender, with an ambition to ascend to the top 3 in the near future. Reports indicate a growing demand for equipment and metrology tools, with lead times extending from one to more than two years. To mitigate the impact of these extended lead times, substrate players must meticulously plan their CapEx investments. It is worth noting that ABF material, primarily used in FC BGA packages, currently possesses ample production capacity to meet market demands at a stable price until 2030.

At Yole Group, we lead the charge in Packaging analysis. Our team of experts is committed to harnessing the full potential of this transformative technology. We deliver a state-of-the-art understanding of what Packaging brings, what is at stake regarding technology and the supply chain, and the importance of advanced substrates for the entire packaging industry.